Today I want to examine the price action that has historically occurred in the month of June for Bitcoin. What makes this so compelling is that June has been a major pivot point for Bitcoin's price every single year without exception. Combine that with all of my other recent analysis, it is shaping up to cause another significant volatile move in the weeks ahead. Let's break down the data first.
Historical Data
Every June, Bitcoin has created either a pivot low or pivot high before a significant swing in price.
2018 (Midterm): Pivot Low @ $5,750 → Pivot High @ $8,492 +48% in approximately 5 weeks
2019: Pivot Low @ $7,444 → Pivot High @ $13,970 +88% in approximately 3 weeks
2020 (Election Year): Pivot High @ $10,380 → Pivot Low @ $8,833 -15% in approximately 3 weeks
2021 (Cycle Top Year): Pivot Low @ $28,805 → Pivot High @ $69,000 +140% in approximately 20 weeks
2022 (Midterm): Pivot Low @ $17,622 → Pivot High @ $25,211 +43% in approximately 9 weeks
2023: Pivot Low @ $24,800 → Pivot High @ $31,804 +28% in approximately 4 weeks
2024 (Election Year): Pivot High @ $71,997 → Pivot Low @ $49,000 -32% in approximately 9 weeks
2025 (Cycle Top Year): Pivot Low @ $98,200 → Pivot High @ $126,200 +29% in approximately 16 weeks
2026 (Midterm): Pivot Low @ $58,115 → Pivot High @ ???
Election Years: 2020 and 2024
Both election years saw a pivot high form in June followed by a significant pullback. These are the two outliers in the dataset. Every other year produced a pivot low in June, making the election year pattern the exception rather than what's normal.
Cycle Top Years: 2021 and 2025
Both instances where June fell in a market cycle top year saw Bitcoin create a major pivot low before rallying significantly toward the cycle top. 2021 went on to produce a +140% move over 20 weeks and 2025 produced a +29% move over 16 weeks.
Midterm Years: 2018 and 2022
This is the most important category for 2026. Both prior midterm year data points, 2018 and 2022, marked major pivot lows in June before a swift and powerful bear market rally. In both instances Bitcoin increased over 40% in a matter of weeks.
What This Means for 2026
Last week, Bitcoin appears to have formed its June pivot low around $58,000 and should now be preparing for its next leg to the upside. If this follows the midterm year pattern, Bitcoin should rally back toward the $72,000-$74,000 range, representing a roughly 24%-27% bear market rally.
The reason I believe this rally will not reach the full 40%+ seen in prior midterm years is simply Bitcoin's maturation as an asset. At a significantly higher market valuation the volatility naturally compresses compared to earlier cycles, and a 24%-27% move is still a very meaningful swing.
Supporting Analysis
To give additional support to this idea I have laid out several other posts on Bitcoin, the total crypto market cap, and USDT dominance that are all pointing in the same direction:
The Fundamental Catalyst
One additional fundamental catalyst worth highlighting is the July 13th target date for the CLARITY Act to be brought to the Senate floor. In a previous idea I laid out all of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" events surrounding the CLARITY Act throughout this cycle:
This predicted rally could be the beginning of the "buy the rumor" phase for that Senate vote. Since the data suggests the pivot low is already in, I suggest paying attention now more than ever.
Historical Data
Every June, Bitcoin has created either a pivot low or pivot high before a significant swing in price.
2018 (Midterm): Pivot Low @ $5,750 → Pivot High @ $8,492 +48% in approximately 5 weeks
2019: Pivot Low @ $7,444 → Pivot High @ $13,970 +88% in approximately 3 weeks
2020 (Election Year): Pivot High @ $10,380 → Pivot Low @ $8,833 -15% in approximately 3 weeks
2021 (Cycle Top Year): Pivot Low @ $28,805 → Pivot High @ $69,000 +140% in approximately 20 weeks
2022 (Midterm): Pivot Low @ $17,622 → Pivot High @ $25,211 +43% in approximately 9 weeks
2023: Pivot Low @ $24,800 → Pivot High @ $31,804 +28% in approximately 4 weeks
2024 (Election Year): Pivot High @ $71,997 → Pivot Low @ $49,000 -32% in approximately 9 weeks
2025 (Cycle Top Year): Pivot Low @ $98,200 → Pivot High @ $126,200 +29% in approximately 16 weeks
2026 (Midterm): Pivot Low @ $58,115 → Pivot High @ ???
Election Years: 2020 and 2024
Both election years saw a pivot high form in June followed by a significant pullback. These are the two outliers in the dataset. Every other year produced a pivot low in June, making the election year pattern the exception rather than what's normal.
Cycle Top Years: 2021 and 2025
Both instances where June fell in a market cycle top year saw Bitcoin create a major pivot low before rallying significantly toward the cycle top. 2021 went on to produce a +140% move over 20 weeks and 2025 produced a +29% move over 16 weeks.
Midterm Years: 2018 and 2022
This is the most important category for 2026. Both prior midterm year data points, 2018 and 2022, marked major pivot lows in June before a swift and powerful bear market rally. In both instances Bitcoin increased over 40% in a matter of weeks.
What This Means for 2026
Last week, Bitcoin appears to have formed its June pivot low around $58,000 and should now be preparing for its next leg to the upside. If this follows the midterm year pattern, Bitcoin should rally back toward the $72,000-$74,000 range, representing a roughly 24%-27% bear market rally.
The reason I believe this rally will not reach the full 40%+ seen in prior midterm years is simply Bitcoin's maturation as an asset. At a significantly higher market valuation the volatility naturally compresses compared to earlier cycles, and a 24%-27% move is still a very meaningful swing.
Supporting Analysis
To give additional support to this idea I have laid out several other posts on Bitcoin, the total crypto market cap, and USDT dominance that are all pointing in the same direction:
The Fundamental Catalyst
One additional fundamental catalyst worth highlighting is the July 13th target date for the CLARITY Act to be brought to the Senate floor. In a previous idea I laid out all of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" events surrounding the CLARITY Act throughout this cycle:
This predicted rally could be the beginning of the "buy the rumor" phase for that Senate vote. Since the data suggests the pivot low is already in, I suggest paying attention now more than ever.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.