Macro sentiment shifted bullish this week. Trump reached "framework deal" with NATO on Greenland at Davos, dropping tariff threats on 8 European nations. Markets rallied on de-escalation.
Breaking overnight: China greenlights tech firms to prep Nvidia H200 orders - major reversal, risk-on for tech sector.
Asian markets hit new highs. MSCI Asia Pacific +0.4%. Gold near $5,000. Dollar plummeted most in a month. Investors rotating out of US assets into emerging markets at record pace.
European PMIs came in better than expected. German Manufacturing 48.7 vs 47.8 forecast. UK Services 54.3 vs 51.7 - strong beat. UK Retail Sales +2.5% vs +1.1% expected.
BOJ held rates at 0.75% as expected. Japan PM Takaichi dissolved parliament, snap election Feb 8th.
TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR (ET)
9:45 AM - US Manufacturing PMI Flash (Forecast 52.1)
9:45 AM - US Services PMI Flash (Forecast 52.8)
10:00 AM - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Forecast 54.0)
PMIs are the main catalyst today. Services PMI is the bigger market mover.
MULTI-TIMEFRAME STRUCTURE
4H Chart:
Price at Equilibrium ~6940 after recovering from LL at 6825 (Jan 20-21 selloff). CHoCH confirmed mid-January around 6900. Still printing LH structure - needs break above 6964+ for bullish confirmation. Oscillator readings neutral with slight bearish bias.
1H Chart:
HH formed at 6964.5 on Jan 22. Multiple LH prints developing. BOS marked - structure attempting bullish shift. Price sitting at PWL area. Oscillator showing bearish divergence developing.
30M Chart:
Tight consolidation between session levels. Price hovering around VWAP 6948 and Prior Close 6946. Waiting for PMI catalyst to determine direction.
RESISTANCE:
7040-7045 - Prior 4H HH, swing target
7015-7020 - 1H Strong High, 707K volume node
6990-7010 - Major HTF zone. 4H PWH/PQH cluster. 1H PMH. 651K volume node (39%). Premium zone entry.
6958-6970 - Primary resistance cluster. 4H LH 6964.5. 1H HH 6964.5. PDH 6969. ONH 6958.5. Y-VAH 6958.5. NYAM.H 6964.5. AS.H 6960.75. 120K volume zone (7%).
SUPPORT:
6930-6940 - Primary support cluster. 4H Equilibrium 6940. 1H Equilibrium 6940. Y-VAL 6932.5. NYPM.L 6932.5. PWL zone. 38K volume node (2%).
6920-6928 - Secondary support. PDL 6925.5. NYAM.L 6925.5.
6905-6915 - Deep pullback zone. ONL 6911.25. Thursday LO.L 6914.75. 1H HL structure.
6895-6905 - 1H CHoCH+ zone, structure support.
6820-6830 - 4H LL from Jan 20-21. 145K volume shelf (9%).
6795-6810 - HTF liquidity target. 4H PML. Weak Low zone.
SESSION GAME PLAN
Pre-9:45 AM: Expect consolidation 6930-6958. No forced trades. Mark levels and wait.
9:45 AM PMI Release: If PMI beats, look for 6930-6940 buy on any flush. If PMI misses, look for 6958-6970 rejection short. Initial move often fades - don't chase.
10:00 AM Post-Michigan: True directional move typically emerges after initial volatility settles. Best setups at confluence zones with CVD confirmation.
Friday Afternoon: Reduced position sizing after 2 PM. Watch for end-of-week flows. Book profits before weekend.
BIAS
Neutral-to-Bullish. Macro backdrop improved significantly. Technical structure shows recovery from Monday selloff. However 4H/1H still printing LH pattern - needs 6970+ break for bullish confirmation. PMI data is the wild card.
Price sitting exactly at 4H/1H Equilibrium - decision point. Wait for CVD confirmation at the 5-star confluence zones for highest probability entries
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info@algoindex.com, algoindex.com | Join our free trading community: facebook.com/groups/1256769122661043
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.