Current price: 2,248. OI elevated at 526K. Funding: +0.0024.
Read that last line and then go look at the BTC post.
BTC has negative funding into strength. ETH has positive funding into weakness. Two different animals. Two different setups. Both resolve higher. But ETH has a tell BTC does not.
Longs are paying on a chart that has not broken out. That is not conviction. That is impatience. And the market has a well-documented process for dealing with impatient longs.
Two scenarios from here.
Blue path.
Price holds above 2,200, consolidates inside the channel, reclaims 2,385, and pushes toward the 2,520 to 2,560 upper channel target. Clean. Efficient. The reward for positioning before the obvious confirmation. This path closes the longs in profit and nobody learns anything.
Red path.
Price sweeps down to the 2,088 OB, tags the channel midpoint, flushes the impatient longs who added at 2,300 waiting for a breakout, resets funding to negative, and then delivers the same destination. The 2,050 yellow level is where the OTE lives. That is not a warning. That is the reload.
The CVD drop on the right side of the data chart is the most important detail on this screen. Selling pressure in the derivatives while OI stays elevated means someone is distributing into the longs. That is not a breakout setup. That is a setup that needs one more shakeout before it goes.
JPMorgan published a note today about ETH underperforming without meaningful network activity improvements. They are watching the wrong chart.
The structure says 2,050 to 2,090 before 2,560. The funding says the market disagrees. One of them is right.
Invalidation: 12H close below 2,050.
Read that last line and then go look at the BTC post.
BTC has negative funding into strength. ETH has positive funding into weakness. Two different animals. Two different setups. Both resolve higher. But ETH has a tell BTC does not.
Longs are paying on a chart that has not broken out. That is not conviction. That is impatience. And the market has a well-documented process for dealing with impatient longs.
Two scenarios from here.
Blue path.
Price holds above 2,200, consolidates inside the channel, reclaims 2,385, and pushes toward the 2,520 to 2,560 upper channel target. Clean. Efficient. The reward for positioning before the obvious confirmation. This path closes the longs in profit and nobody learns anything.
Red path.
Price sweeps down to the 2,088 OB, tags the channel midpoint, flushes the impatient longs who added at 2,300 waiting for a breakout, resets funding to negative, and then delivers the same destination. The 2,050 yellow level is where the OTE lives. That is not a warning. That is the reload.
The CVD drop on the right side of the data chart is the most important detail on this screen. Selling pressure in the derivatives while OI stays elevated means someone is distributing into the longs. That is not a breakout setup. That is a setup that needs one more shakeout before it goes.
JPMorgan published a note today about ETH underperforming without meaningful network activity improvements. They are watching the wrong chart.
The structure says 2,050 to 2,090 before 2,560. The funding says the market disagrees. One of them is right.
Invalidation: 12H close below 2,050.
Charles V. — The Chart Whisperer
10+ years live BTC & ETH perpetuals. Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Institutional Order Flow — integrated into one rules-based framework.
Full system: chartwhisperer.ca
10+ years live BTC & ETH perpetuals. Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Institutional Order Flow — integrated into one rules-based framework.
Full system: chartwhisperer.ca
Publicaciones relacionadas
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.
Charles V. — The Chart Whisperer
10+ years live BTC & ETH perpetuals. Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Institutional Order Flow — integrated into one rules-based framework.
Full system: chartwhisperer.ca
10+ years live BTC & ETH perpetuals. Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Institutional Order Flow — integrated into one rules-based framework.
Full system: chartwhisperer.ca
Publicaciones relacionadas
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.