Technical Analysis & Order Flow
1. Natural Gas (NATGAS) - The Primary
Weekly/Daily: Price has broken out of a multi-year base. The strong impulse candles suggest institutional buying. We are likely in Level 3 of a standard Market Maker cycle (the trending phase).
4H Structure: Price is making clear Higher Highs and Higher Lows. The recent pause at 4.437 is a Bullish Consolidation (Time Correction).
Liquidity: There is "clean" buy-side liquidity above 4.500. A break of this level will likely trigger a gamma squeeze to 4.800.
Order Block: The 4.350 level represents a key Bullish Order Block (previous resistance turned support) on the 1H chart. We want to see price wick into this zone and reject lower prices.
2. DXY (US Dollar) - The Inverse Indicator
Analysis: DXY is currently testing a major resistance zone at 100.20 – 100.50 (Blue Box on your chart).
Trigger: If DXY rejects this level and drops toward 99.00, it provides a massive tailwind for Commodities (incl. NatGas of course).
Caution: A DXY 4H candle close above 100.50 would invalidate the immediate bullish momentum for Gas.
3. Peabody Energy (BTU) - The Correlation (Coal/Energy Sector)
Analysis: BTU is lagging behind the Gas rally but is finding support at the 26.00 level.
Signal: We watch for BTU to break above 26.50. If Coal starts rallying, it confirms the broader "Energy Sector" bid, adding confidence to the Nat.Gas long.
Execution Strategy
Monday Open: Gap open likely! We don't chase the gap up if it opens above 4.500.
The "Trap": We watch for a False Move (Stop Hunt) lower during the London session (approx. 3:00 AM - 5:00 AM ET) down into the 4.380 area.
Entry Trigger: We enter long when we see a 15m bullish engulfing candle or a W-Pattern forming inside the 4.350-4.380 zone.
Trade Management:
We move Stop Loss to BE once price clears 4.500;
Verdicts:
Technical Trend: ✅ Strong Bullish
Seasonality: ✅ Bullish (Winter Heating Demand)
Volume Profile: ✅ Expanding on Up-moves
Trade Probability: High (80%+)
1. Natural Gas (NATGAS) - The Primary
Weekly/Daily: Price has broken out of a multi-year base. The strong impulse candles suggest institutional buying. We are likely in Level 3 of a standard Market Maker cycle (the trending phase).
4H Structure: Price is making clear Higher Highs and Higher Lows. The recent pause at 4.437 is a Bullish Consolidation (Time Correction).
Liquidity: There is "clean" buy-side liquidity above 4.500. A break of this level will likely trigger a gamma squeeze to 4.800.
Order Block: The 4.350 level represents a key Bullish Order Block (previous resistance turned support) on the 1H chart. We want to see price wick into this zone and reject lower prices.
2. DXY (US Dollar) - The Inverse Indicator
Analysis: DXY is currently testing a major resistance zone at 100.20 – 100.50 (Blue Box on your chart).
Trigger: If DXY rejects this level and drops toward 99.00, it provides a massive tailwind for Commodities (incl. NatGas of course).
Caution: A DXY 4H candle close above 100.50 would invalidate the immediate bullish momentum for Gas.
3. Peabody Energy (BTU) - The Correlation (Coal/Energy Sector)
Analysis: BTU is lagging behind the Gas rally but is finding support at the 26.00 level.
Signal: We watch for BTU to break above 26.50. If Coal starts rallying, it confirms the broader "Energy Sector" bid, adding confidence to the Nat.Gas long.
Execution Strategy
Monday Open: Gap open likely! We don't chase the gap up if it opens above 4.500.
The "Trap": We watch for a False Move (Stop Hunt) lower during the London session (approx. 3:00 AM - 5:00 AM ET) down into the 4.380 area.
Entry Trigger: We enter long when we see a 15m bullish engulfing candle or a W-Pattern forming inside the 4.350-4.380 zone.
Trade Management:
We move Stop Loss to BE once price clears 4.500;
Verdicts:
Technical Trend: ✅ Strong Bullish
Seasonality: ✅ Bullish (Winter Heating Demand)
Volume Profile: ✅ Expanding on Up-moves
Trade Probability: High (80%+)
Operación activa
50% of the long position opened at market price50% of the long position pending market order @4.355
Nota
Pending market order will be canceled. Original long position running. No changes to SL or TP.Operación cerrada: precio stop alcanzado
Got stopped out on this one. Obviously a classic stop hunt with bounce back - well done market makers... 
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.