It's been a while since I've posted an idea for NVDA. I've traded it a bunch since then, but I like to have something a little extra on my side if I'm going to post, and today I do.
I am an unabashed quant. I play the numbers more than I play the technicals, though my signals are technical-based. For those interested in some simple technicals, I'll drop those first.
1) 6 month uptrend
2) 2 levels of support, 1 nearby shown on the chart
3) resting right on its 20d MA and above both its 50 and 200d MAs
Now for the fun part for me. Today is the second consecutive oversold signal for me. In the last 4 years, that has resulted in a win every time, with the longest holding period being 9 trading days. You have to go back to 2022 to find one that didn't pay that fast - and if you remember 2022, NVDA was not alone in that drop. More than half of these trades paid in one day.
Also, in the last year, after 3 consecutive down days, the longest it has taken to get back to green is, you guessed it - also 9 trading days. The most common result? Also anticlimactic - 1 day.
There's my case. I have never had a losing trade on NVDA. I suppose it could happen with this one, but I doubt it. It would have to go to zero for that to happen.
I will add and subtract tactically if the trade extends beyond day 1. Also, if I can get a 2% gain in the first day intraday, I will sell then and not look back. That would be an above average trade. Otherwise, any level above that .94% per day is fair game for me and I will close on the first profitable close, regardless of the size of the gain.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
I am an unabashed quant. I play the numbers more than I play the technicals, though my signals are technical-based. For those interested in some simple technicals, I'll drop those first.
1) 6 month uptrend
2) 2 levels of support, 1 nearby shown on the chart
3) resting right on its 20d MA and above both its 50 and 200d MAs
Now for the fun part for me. Today is the second consecutive oversold signal for me. In the last 4 years, that has resulted in a win every time, with the longest holding period being 9 trading days. You have to go back to 2022 to find one that didn't pay that fast - and if you remember 2022, NVDA was not alone in that drop. More than half of these trades paid in one day.
Also, in the last year, after 3 consecutive down days, the longest it has taken to get back to green is, you guessed it - also 9 trading days. The most common result? Also anticlimactic - 1 day.
There's my case. I have never had a losing trade on NVDA. I suppose it could happen with this one, but I doubt it. It would have to go to zero for that to happen.
I will add and subtract tactically if the trade extends beyond day 1. Also, if I can get a 2% gain in the first day intraday, I will sell then and not look back. That would be an above average trade. Otherwise, any level above that .94% per day is fair game for me and I will close on the first profitable close, regardless of the size of the gain.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Nota
Added a lot just before the close at 212.47.Lots held
Lot 1 - 214.86
Lot 2 - 212.47
Nota
I sold lot 2 at the close for 214.28 - a +0.85% gain in 1 trading day.Lots held
Lot 1 - 214.86
Nota
I actually sold my remaining position when it was up about 1.2% today about an hour before the close, but was lazy about updating this in a timely fashion, so that seems like cheating. So let's pretend I didn't. I actually re-bought it at the close for 211.26, so let's call that 211.26 buy lot 3 here.Lots held
Lot 1 - 214.86
Lot 3 - 211.26
Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado
Just closed both open lots at 220.56. Trade is done. The worst of the 3 trades beat the long term average daily return of the market by 15x. Not bad for a stock that people were leaving for dead. Lot 1: 214.86 --> 220.56 = +2.65% in 4 trading days
Lot 2: 212.47 --> 214.28 = +0.85% in 1 trading day
Lot 3 = 211.26 --> 220.56 = +4.4% in 1 trading day
Nota
Trade summary for my recordsWins 3
Losses 0
Avg gain per lot = +2.63%
Avg holding period per lot = 2 days
Avg gain per lot per day held = +1.32%
Annualized rate of return = 1.32% x 252 = +332%
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.