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SPY & SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025

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🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 🔮

🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
⚠️ Shutdown backlog still unresolved: Several October reports scheduled for Tuesday (Import Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization) remain at high risk of delay, which keeps macro visibility muddy and makes equities more sensitive to yields + positioning.
🏠 Housing sentiment check: Homebuilder confidence is one of the few confirmed releases, giving the market a clean read on construction demand and rates pressure.

📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Oct)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index ex-Fuel (Oct)
⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production (Oct)
⏰ 9:15 AM — Capacity Utilization (Oct)

⚠️ All four reports remain at risk of non-release due to the Oct 1–Nov 14 shutdown impact.
If they publish, they directly affect inflation expectations and recession probabilities.

⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug, delayed report)

Older data, but could matter slightly since it’s been stuck in the backlog.

⏰ 10:00 AM — Homebuilder Confidence (Nov)

Forecast: 37 (prior 37)
The only fresh and confirmed economic print of the morning.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.

📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #inflation #housing #manufacturing #markets #rates #investing

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