An over simplification? I hope so.
The narrative fits too close for me. Needless to say, it's worth keeping an eye on.
If we manage to keep interest rates low for a while but inflation creeps in again (not due to high demand but because of monetary inflation) I can see the debt spiral scenario playing out in full force. This is a chilling thought, not something my generation has been exposed to and I believe it could have a very different impact to the population than the previous cycle. The difference being of course, the inflation not being demand driven but monetary debasement driven. To me this practically means a more impoverished population that is already struggling and those holding assets will further increase their portion of the pie.
There are a lot of unknows for me, as I basically know nothing about this. These are just my back of napkin thoughts. Me, trying to make sense of the world we live in because I know you can't look to anyone for the answer. Why? Frankly, I have learned that 98% of us don't know anything.
Ps - I am still not taking the deflationary narrative play off the table. Population decline, low interest rates and using robots to increase GDP etc. But either way all I can see is a exponential increase in debt creation. What other option is there? Both scenarios can't possibly lead to the same outcome, can they?
The narrative fits too close for me. Needless to say, it's worth keeping an eye on.
If we manage to keep interest rates low for a while but inflation creeps in again (not due to high demand but because of monetary inflation) I can see the debt spiral scenario playing out in full force. This is a chilling thought, not something my generation has been exposed to and I believe it could have a very different impact to the population than the previous cycle. The difference being of course, the inflation not being demand driven but monetary debasement driven. To me this practically means a more impoverished population that is already struggling and those holding assets will further increase their portion of the pie.
There are a lot of unknows for me, as I basically know nothing about this. These are just my back of napkin thoughts. Me, trying to make sense of the world we live in because I know you can't look to anyone for the answer. Why? Frankly, I have learned that 98% of us don't know anything.
Ps - I am still not taking the deflationary narrative play off the table. Population decline, low interest rates and using robots to increase GDP etc. But either way all I can see is a exponential increase in debt creation. What other option is there? Both scenarios can't possibly lead to the same outcome, can they?
Nota
The more I think about it the more I see that this has to go back to 0%. What other option is there? The global debt is so high that higher interest rates only compound debasement, increasing inflation to unsustainable levels. This then would quicken the pace of this disaster. Again, what other option do they have but to delay the inevitable disaster as long as possible by reducing the debt burden (interest rates)?
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La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.