Current Trend:
The chart illustrates a clear bearish trend from November 27 to December 15, 2025, with the price forming lower highs and lower lows. The visible price range is between approximately $4,429 (initial high) and $4,200 (recent low), reflecting a deep correction following a possible previous rally. This aligns with a macroeconomic context where gold faces pressure from a strong USD and expectations of stable or hawkish interest rates from the Fed.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish (Probability ~40%):
Rebound from green put support (~4,281) or blue volume (~4,220) if data is weak (e.g., low CPI). Target: Breakout of the black line towards 4,347-4,358 (97-100% Fibonacci retracement), potentially to 4,385 by the weekend. Confirmed by high volume and a close above the channel. Long-term: Projections to $4,350+ due to Fed cuts and safe-haven demand.
Bearish (Probability ~50%):
Continuation below the orange HVL if hawkish events occur, breaking 4,220 towards 4,178-4,137. Target: $4,000 if the breakout occurs, aligned with a hover near that level.
Neutral/Range (Probability ~10%):
Consolidation between 4,281-4,429 if mixed data, with volatility at HVL but no breakout.
The chart illustrates a clear bearish trend from November 27 to December 15, 2025, with the price forming lower highs and lower lows. The visible price range is between approximately $4,429 (initial high) and $4,200 (recent low), reflecting a deep correction following a possible previous rally. This aligns with a macroeconomic context where gold faces pressure from a strong USD and expectations of stable or hawkish interest rates from the Fed.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish (Probability ~40%):
Rebound from green put support (~4,281) or blue volume (~4,220) if data is weak (e.g., low CPI). Target: Breakout of the black line towards 4,347-4,358 (97-100% Fibonacci retracement), potentially to 4,385 by the weekend. Confirmed by high volume and a close above the channel. Long-term: Projections to $4,350+ due to Fed cuts and safe-haven demand.
Bearish (Probability ~50%):
Continuation below the orange HVL if hawkish events occur, breaking 4,220 towards 4,178-4,137. Target: $4,000 if the breakout occurs, aligned with a hover near that level.
Neutral/Range (Probability ~10%):
Consolidation between 4,281-4,429 if mixed data, with volatility at HVL but no breakout.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.