Descending Channel

GOLD - Ahead of the Fed meeting. Bearish trend ICMARKETS:XAUUSD is rebounding from the 4000 level but remains trapped within the 4010–4050 trading range. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index has entered a consolidation phase as markets await the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting Gold is trading cautiously ahead of the Fed decision amid renewed geopolitical tensions. The key catalyst will be the Fed's guidance on the future path of interest rates. Any hint of a dovish shift could fuel a rally in gold, while a hawkish message would likely restore downside pressure. Bullish drivers: Dovish Fed rhetoric, A weaker U.S. dollar, Lower rate expectations, Geopolitical de-escalation Bearish drivers: Hawkish Fed guidance (persistent inflation concerns, hints of further tightening, a more hawkish voting balance), Escalation of geopolitical tensions, supporting both the U.S. dollar and oil prices Resistance levels: 4070, 4083, 4116 Support levels: 4011, 3983 Fundamentally, there are reasons to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish tone. From a technical perspective, gold remains under pressure within a broader bearish trend. As a result, the upcoming news-driven volatility could trigger a retest of the 4070–4083 resistance zone—or even 4116—before the downtrend resumes toward the 4000–3950 area. Best regards, R. Linda

AUDUSD - A long squeeze could trigger a rally FX:AUDUSD is testing a key support zone, with a significant liquidity pool positioned just below it. The broader daily trend remains bullish, giving buyers an opportunity to regain control At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index is testing resistance. Profit-taking near the 101.5 area could trigger a pullback in the dollar, providing additional support for the Australian dollar. From a technical perspective, a substantial liquidity pool has formed below 0.69615. A long squeeze in this area could trigger a rebound and support a continuation of the prevailing uptrend toward the next target zone Resistance levels: 0.6994, 0.7010, 0.7021 Support level: 0.6960 A false breakout below 0.69615, followed by a recovery and sustained consolidation above this level, could become the technical catalyst for a rally toward 0.6994–0.7020 Best regards, R. Linda

BITCOIN - A countertrend correction before a decline BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P is breaking the local bullish market structure within a broader bearish distribution phase while also forming a false breakdown below the 63,680 support area. The market continues to reinforce the dominance of the higher-timeframe bearish trend, although a corrective rebound remains possible before the next leg lower Higher timeframe: The broader bearish trend remains intact. Sellers prevented price from reaching the key technical retracement level at 67,250, while a weak fundamental backdrop and continued ETF outflows continue to weigh on market sentiment. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has invalidated the local bullish structure after bears rejected the advance toward 67,250. The false breakout above 66K triggered a sharp sell-off and was followed by a break below the ascending trendline support Resistance levels: 64,692, 65,590 Support levels: 63,860, 62,750, 61,322 Following the recent decline, Bitcoin may attempt a countertrend correction to sweep liquidity and fill the existing fair value gap. The primary focus remains on the 64,692 and 65,590 resistance levels. A short squeeze into this resistance zone could provide the technical setup for another bearish reversal toward the lower boundary of the current trading range Best regards, R. Linda

EURAUD Short Idea EURAUD has been in a downtrend on the H2 timeframe throughout July. It has been following a channel, which it has respected well with multiple touches. The price has touched the upper trendline for the fourth time and reacted to it, with a high likelihood of respecting it again and continuing downwards.

SOLUSDT - Manipulation by MM could trigger a drop BINANCE:SOLUSDT remains in a broader bearish trend, with price developing a local downtrend inside the 74.55–72.30 trading range. Within this structure, I expect a potential market maker manipulation phase The fundamental backdrop for the cryptocurrency market remains weak. Bitcoin has already broken its local bullish structure and is building bearish momentum ahead of a possible continuation lower. Further weakness in the market leader could weigh on the rest of the crypto market Against this backdrop, Solana shows little relative strength. The medium-term countertrend correction has transitioned into a local downtrend, with price now consolidating inside a range. The primary focus is on 74.55, where I expect market makers may retest resistance and sweep liquidity before the next bearish leg Resistance: 74.55 Support: 73.13, 72.30 SOLANA is consolidating within a range that has accumulated significant liquidity around its boundaries. Given the weak fundamental backdrop and prevailing bearish trend, a short squeeze into the 74.55 resistance zone could become the technical trigger for another decline toward the listed support levels Best regards, R. Linda

GOLD - Correction Before a Decline ICMARKETS:XAUUSD remains under pressure from the broader bearish trend. However, within this primary direction, the market is developing a sideways range and a countertrend correction. A stronger U.S. dollar could once again weigh on the metal Gold has received temporary support from the recent geopolitical pause and a softer U.S. dollar. However, the sustainability of the recovery remains uncertain as markets await the upcoming Federal Reserve decision and further developments in the Middle East. Technical indicators continue to point to a bearish bias, limiting buyers' appetite. Bullish drivers: Further U.S. dollar weakness, Geopolitical de-escalation, Lower oil prices and bond yields, A dovish signal from the Federal Reserve Bearish drivers: Renewed geopolitical escalation, Rising oil prices, Hawkish Fed rhetoric, Renewed U.S. dollar strength Resistance levels: 4109, 4134 Support levels: 4082, 4067, 4028 Although the U.S. dollar is currently in a corrective phase, its broader trend remains bullish. This could allow gold to complete a liquidity sweep before resuming its decline. Before any further advance, gold may retest the 4082 support level. The primary focus remains on the 4134 liquidity zone, where a short squeeze could trigger another bearish reversal Best regards, R. Linda

US30 Short Opportunity in Bearish Continuation Descending channel continuation pattern No bullish RSI divergence CMP testing channel upper boundary ENtry at CMP SL at last LH TP1 at RR1 TP2 open

GOLD - The Hunt for Liquidity (Correction) Before the Drop ICMARKETS:XAUUSD is recovering after Thursday's sharp decline, trading around $4,060 on Friday. This rebound may represent nothing more than a liquidity-building move before the broader downtrend resumes The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, while gold remains under selling pressure, reinforcing the prevailing bearish market structure. The broader trend remains firmly bearish. From a technical perspective, gold continues to face pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. The current recovery appears to be a countertrend correction toward key liquidity zones, potentially building momentum for another decline toward the 4000–3983 support area. The next directional move will largely depend on the U.S. dollar, oil prices, PMI data, and developments surrounding the geopolitical conflict. Bearish drivers: Stronger hawkish Fed expectations, Rising oil prices, Continued U.S. dollar strength, Profit-taking, Bearish technical structure Bullish drivers: U.S. dollar weakness triggered by new tariff developments, Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected PMI data Resistance levels: 4061, 4067, 4109 Support levels: 4021, 4000, 3983 Within the current countertrend correction, gold is testing the first trigger zone at 4061–4067. A short squeeze around this area could trigger another reversal and send price back toward support. However, a deeper correction toward the 4109–4134 liquidity zone before the next bearish leg cannot be ruled out Best regards, R. Linda

GOLD - A false breakout of resistance within a bearish trend ICMARKETS:XAUUSD has broken out of its short-term descending channel within the current distribution phase and is now testing the 4134 liquidity zone while printing fresh intermediate highs. Despite the technical recovery, the broader fundamental backdrop remains weak Gold remains caught between geopolitical support and pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and elevated real yields. Analysts note that a sustainable recovery would likely require lower oil prices, declining bond yields, and softer expectations for further monetary tightening. Until then, the upside potential is expected to remain limited. At the moment, oil prices continue to rise, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened for a fifth consecutive session, maintaining its broader bullish trend. Bullish drivers: Geopolitical de-escalation, Falling oil prices, A weaker U.S. dollar, Softer expectations for Fed rate hikes Bearish drivers: Escalation of geopolitical tensions, Rising oil prices, Hawkish Fed rhetoric, Continued U.S. dollar strength Resistance levels: 4124, 4134, 4195 Support levels: 4103, 4067, 4028 Technically, the market is testing a key liquidity pool within the current distribution phase and may be forming a short squeeze. If bears manage to keep price below the 4124–4134 resistance zone, it could trigger another leg lower in line with the broader daily bearish trend Best regards, R. Linda

A year of consolidation Price has been trading in a descending channel for a year. Looks like it want to break out but it might take a few more weeks. I have a position, if it pulls back to 140 ish and the support holds I'll add. Fundamentals look goo too. SL triggers if a weekly candle breaks down the support shown and closes under it.

Bullish Reversal Signs in Refinery Stock!PRL Analysis Closed at 42.07 (10-07-2026) Inverse Head & Shoulders Falling channel breakout Resistance breakout (38.78) Strong bullish candle High breakout volume Higher low forming on the right shoulder. If price falls back below the neckline and remains below it, the breakout may turn into a false breakout.

by House-of-Technicals

BITCOIN - A distribution toward 67K before a decline?BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P has transitioned from consolidation into a distribution phase following the breakout above resistance and is now advancing toward a key resistance zone within the broader bearish trend The fundamental backdrop remains relatively weak for the cryptocurrency market. However, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows for five consecutive trading sessions, providing short-term support for the current rally. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken above the 65,600 resistance level, and the momentum built during consolidation could drive price toward the 67,250 resistance zone. Nevertheless, given the prevailing higher-timeframe bearish trend, this area may act as a significant barrier and halt the advance Resistance levels: 67,250 Support levels: 65,600, 63,800, 61,800 The broader market trend remains bearish. Price is approaching the key 67,250 resistance zone, where a short squeeze could shift momentum back in favor of sellers. If bears regain control at this level, Bitcoin could reverse and resume its primary downtrend toward 65,600, 63,800, and 61,800 Best regards, R. Linda

GOLD - A short squeeze before the decline continues toward 3900 ICMARKETS:XAUUSD is hovering around the $4,000 mark on Monday, caught between bullish and bearish pressure as markets digest the ongoing escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, while this week's U.S. economic calendar remains relatively light The U.S. dollar remains in consolidation, although the Dollar Index (DXY) continues to maintain its broader bullish trend. Gold remains under pressure, and the daily technical outlook continues to favor the bears, limiting the potential for a sustained recovery. At this stage, there are few signs that this scenario will change in the near term. Bearish drivers: Escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict, supporting both the U.S. dollar and oil prices, Hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, Bearish technical market structure Bullish drivers: Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data, Profit-taking after recent declines Resistance levels: 4028, 4043, 4065 Support levels: 3960, 3943, 3900 Gold remains under selling pressure due to a combination of technical and fundamental factors. The broader trend is still bearish. Technically, the market is confirming resistance around 4028.6, and a short squeeze into the 4028.6–4065 liquidity zone remains possible before the broader downtrend resumes toward 3940–3900 Best regards, R. Linda

GOLD - The hunt for liquidity before the fall to 3900...FX:XAUUSD has completely unwound the bullish momentum generated by the recent news and has printed fresh local lows. The market remains in both a local and broader bearish trend, driven by persistent fundamental and geopolitical uncertainty Gold continues to trade under pressure, with sellers firmly in control. The next key catalysts will be the U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports. The technical outlook remains bearish, with price making new local lows while still holding above the key 3960 support area. Before the broader decline resumes, the market may enter a liquidity sweep phase, with downside potential extending toward 3940–3900. Bearish drivers: Escalation of geopolitical tensions, Rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar, Hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, Strong U.S. economic data Bullish drivers: Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment data, End-of-week profit-taking Resistance levels: 4028, 4043, 4065 Support levels: 3960, 3943 The U.S. dollar remains in a strong bullish trend, reinforcing the bearish outlook for gold. Technically, the market is developing a breakout structure around the 3960–3940 support zone. A sustained break and close below this area could trigger another leg lower. However, before the next sell-off, a short squeeze toward the 4028–4065 resistance zone remains possible. A false breakout of this area could attract fresh selling pressure and accelerate the broader downtrend Best regards, R. Linda

BITCOIN - A false breakout of resistance in a bear market BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P is forming a retest of the key 64,500 resistance level as part of a countertrend correction, trapping late buyers while the market remains in a liquidity sweep phase The broader trend remains bearish. Unstable ETF flows, the lack of meaningful fundamental support, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on the market. Within the broader bear market, the market maker has swept liquidity above 64,500 before pushing price back into the trading range. Bitcoin remains in a 62,000–65,000 consolidation zone, while the higher-timeframe trend continues to point lower. A short squeeze into the resistance area could trigger another sell-off toward the 60K–50K region Resistance levels: 64,450, 64,700, 65,600 Support levels: 62,750, 61,300 A retest of the liquidity pool above 64,450 may attract renewed selling pressure. If bears successfully defend this key resistance zone, it would further confirm the prevailing bearish market structure and increase the probability of a decline toward 62,750 and 61,300 Best regards, R. Linda

GOLD - Anticipating a short squeeze before the decline continues ICMARKETS:XAUUSD experienced a short squeeze around the key liquidity zone following Tuesday's CPI release. However, the market quickly regained its bearish momentum and resumed selling in line with the prevailing trend The U.S. dollar remains in consolidation, as does the broader market, but the Dollar Index (DXY) continues to maintain its broader bullish trend, keeping pressure on gold. The lack of fundamental support, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, continues to favor the bears. The escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key source of uncertainty Gold is still under pressure, with sellers maintaining control and using every rebound as an opportunity to initiate new short positions. The next major catalysts will be the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Warsh. The daily technical structure remains bearish. Bearish drivers : Escalation of the geopolitical conflict, Higher oil prices, Hawkish Fed rhetoric, Technical sell-on-rallies Bullish drivers : Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected inflation data (including PPI), Dovish Fed commentary Resistance levels: 4062, 4103 Support levels: 4021, 3986, 3960 Technically, gold is testing the 4021 intermediate support level. A local false breakdown could trigger a countertrend rebound toward the 4062 resistance zone to sweep liquidity before the broader downtrend resumes toward 3986–3960 Best regards, R. Linda

ABEV - Bearish Trend Faces a Major Test!ABEV (Ambev S.A.) is one of the largest beverage companies in Latin America, producing and distributing well-known beer, soft drink, and beverage brands across the region. The stock has attracted long-term investors due to its strong market position and defensive business model. From a technical perspective, ABEV remains overall bearish, continuing to trade inside the red descending channel that has guided price action over the longer term. Over the past few years, price has been consolidating inside the orange trading range and has now reached an important technical area where the upper boundary of the descending channel aligns with the range resistance. ⭕This confluence creates an attractive area to monitor for sell setups on lower timeframes, particularly if price shows signs of rejection from the current resistance. ⭕However, if buyers manage to break above both the range resistance and the descending channel, it could provide the first strong indication that the long-term bearish trend is losing control and that a broader bullish reversal may be beginning. The reaction around this technical zone may determine whether sellers can maintain control of the broader trend, or if buyers are preparing to shift the long-term market structure. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice. Rayan Nasser #ABEV #Stocks #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #TrendAnalysis

XAUUSD (H1) | PPI Tonight: Relief Rally or Bearish Continuation?Gold is trading defensively ahead of today's U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), one of the final inflation indicators before the market fully reprices Federal Reserve expectations. Following the softer CPI report, investors will watch whether producer inflation also eases. A weaker-than-expected PPI could reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year, weighing on the U.S. Dollar and supporting gold. Conversely, a stronger PPI would likely revive inflation concerns, push Treasury yields higher, and pressure non-yielding assets like gold. Current Bias: Bearish while price remains below the descending channel resistance. Institutional Supply: 4048–4055 A rejection from this premium supply area could provide fresh sell-side opportunities. Immediate Resistance: 4038–4042 Recent mitigation zone where sellers have regained control. Major Liquidity Target: 3960–3968 Institutional demand and external sell-side liquidity resting near the lower channel boundary. ICT Market Scenarios 🟢 Bullish Scenario If today's PPI prints below expectations and buyers reclaim 4045–4050 with an H1 close above the descending trendline, price may invalidate the current bearish sequence and expand toward the next institutional supply. 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred) If price fails to break above the mitigation supply around 4048–4055, expect another liquidity delivery toward 3985, followed by a possible sweep into the 3960–3968 demand zone. Key Levels Bias: Bearish below 4048–4055 Resistance: 4038–4042 / 4048–4055 Support: 3985 Major Demand: 3960–3968 Risk Note: PPI is a high-impact inflation release that often generates sharp volatility and liquidity sweeps. Waiting for confirmation after the initial reaction can help avoid false breakouts. Market Debate Did yesterday's softer CPI create a true bullish reversal, or was it simply a liquidity grab before tonight's PPI determines the next directional move?

by Fiora_Wintrade

GBPNZD Short Opportunity in Bearish Descending Channel Bearish descending channel Price has retraced 50% from last LL and is testing channel upper boundary CMP at attractive level for short entry Entry at CMP SL at last LH TP at RR1

USDCAD - From consolidation to downward distribution FX:USDCAD is forming a reversal pattern following its recent strong rally. The market appears to be transitioning from a consolidation phase into a distribution phase The U.S. dollar has entered a period of consolidation, while the Canadian dollar is beginning to strengthen, putting additional pressure on the pair. After the strong advance, USDCAD moved into a 1.4150–1.4250 trading range. Instead of continuing higher, price is now showing signs of a reversal. Buyer participation may lead to a distribution phase, with the market potentially moving lower to fill the existing fair value gap (FVG) Resistance levels: 1.4150, 1.4177 Support levels: 1.4092, 1.4024 Technically, after breaking below the consolidation support, bears are attempting to keep the price below the 1.4150 range boundary. As long as this level remains under sellers' control, the market may continue its decline toward 1.4092 and 1.4024 Best regards, R. Linda

GOLD - A countertrend correction before a decline FX:XAUUSD has reversed lower from the 4120–4133 resistance zone—exactly the scenario we had been anticipating since the end of last week—and is now testing the 4050 support area while forming a false breakout. The fundamental and geopolitical backdrop remains weak, suggesting that the broader decline may continue Gold fell sharply on Monday, breaking below the $4100 level as renewed tensions in the Middle East boosted the U.S. dollar. Although the dollar is currently consolidating, it remains in a broader bullish trend, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The overall market remains under bearish pressure, with the technical outlook still negative. The next major catalysts will be the U.S. CPI report, Fed Chair Warsh's speech, and further developments in the Middle East. Drivers: Bearish for gold: Escalation of the conflict (strengthening the U.S. dollar while pushing oil prices and inflation higher), Hawkish Fed signals, Strong U.S. inflation data Bullish for gold: Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected CPI data, Dovish comments from Warsh Resistance levels: 4093, 4108, 4133 Support levels: 4054, 4021 Technically, the market is forming a false breakout below the daily support level. Bulls are attempting to defend the area, which could trigger a corrective rebound toward the 4090–4110 interest zone before the broader downtrend resumes toward 4020–3960 Best regards, R. Linda

NZDUSD - Weekly Key Resistance Comes Into Focus!NZDUSD remains overall bearish, continuing to trade inside the blue descending channel that has guided price action over the longer term. Following the recent rebound from the lower boundary of the channel, price has entered a corrective move and is now approaching a strong weekly resistance and supply zone. This creates an important technical area where sellers may become active again. ⭕As price approaches this resistance zone, we can start looking for sell setups on lower timeframes, particularly if price shows signs of rejection from the current area. ⭕However, if buyers manage to break above the current resistance & supply zone, the focus shifts toward the upper boundary of the descending channel, where it aligns with the next major supply area and another potential rejection may develop. The reaction from this resistance may provide a better indication of whether the broader bearish trend is ready to resume, or if the current corrective move still has room to extend higher. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice. Rayan Nasser #NZDUSD #NZD #USD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Trading #MarketStructure

BITCOIN - Retest of the 64,500 liquidity zone BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P remains within the 58,000–67,000 trading range, established as part of the broader bearish trend. Locally, the market is testing the upper boundary of the consolidation zone at 61,000–64,500, with the primary focus now on the resistance area Bitcoin is currently caught between three major forces: the hawkish FOMC minutes, unstable ETF flows—with outflows resuming after three consecutive days of inflows—and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The market still lacks a strong fundamental catalyst. From a medium-term perspective, Bitcoin could decline toward 58K–50K before a potential long-term bottom is formed. The broader trend remains firmly bearish. Technically, Bitcoin is advancing toward the 64,370–64,690 resistance zone. This move may represent a liquidity grab before another leg lower Resistance levels: 64,370, 64,690 Support levels: 62,550, 61,300 Bitcoin is forming a countertrend correction into a key resistance zone, which also coincides with the upper boundary of the current trading range and a major liquidity pool. A short squeeze in this area could shift momentum back in favor of the bears, while consolidation below this resistance zone may trigger another decline toward 62,550 or the range support at 61,300 Best regards, R. Linda