OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Milman's Stablecoin EWS
Milman's Stablecoin Early Warning System (EWS)
Monitors total stablecoin market cap supply dynamics as a leading indicator of crypto market capitulation. When stablecoin supply contracts — rather than growing or rotating — it signals capital is leaving the crypto ecosystem entirely, not just rotating to safety. Historically, this has preceded major capitulation events by days to weeks.
The indicator tracks three escalating warning stages:
Stage 1 (Yellow) — Supply growth rate slowing. Earliest signal, potentially months of lead time. Mirrors the 2021 pattern where growth decelerated months before the actual market top.
Stage 2 (Orange) — Active contraction confirmed. ROC crosses below the contraction threshold. Mirrors the 2018 pattern where USDT contraction gave approximately one month of warning before capitulation.
Stage 3 / Critical (Red + Triangle) — Supply prints a new lower low below the recent swing range. Per the 2022 LUNA precedent, capitulation followed within days of this signal firing.
Additional signals: Blue diamonds mark instances where USDC supply leads USDT into a lower low — the pattern observed in 2022 where USDC warned before the broader collapse. A purple background indicates BTC is simultaneously trading below its 100-week moving average, the highest-confidence confluence condition.
Settings
Parameter -- Default -- Description
ROC Period -- 7 days -- Lookback for rate-of-change calculation
Lower Low Lookback -- 30 days -- Window for Stage 3 swing low detection
Z-Score Lookback -- 90 days -- Normalization window for the main signal line
Stage 1 ROC Threshold -- -0.3% -- Growth slowing trigger
Stage 2 ROC Threshold-- -1.5% -- Active contraction trigger
BTC 100W MA Highlight -- On -- Purple background when BTC below 100-week MA
Show USDT/USDC Split -- On -- Plots individual stablecoin ROC lines
Notes
Best used as confluence alongside existing market structure analysis. Signals are most reliable on the daily timeframe. Historical data prior to 2020 is limited by stablecoin market size and data availability. Not financial advice.
Inspired by analysis from Blockchain Backer's January 2026 newsletter on stablecoin supply dynamics.
Monitors total stablecoin market cap supply dynamics as a leading indicator of crypto market capitulation. When stablecoin supply contracts — rather than growing or rotating — it signals capital is leaving the crypto ecosystem entirely, not just rotating to safety. Historically, this has preceded major capitulation events by days to weeks.
The indicator tracks three escalating warning stages:
Stage 1 (Yellow) — Supply growth rate slowing. Earliest signal, potentially months of lead time. Mirrors the 2021 pattern where growth decelerated months before the actual market top.
Stage 2 (Orange) — Active contraction confirmed. ROC crosses below the contraction threshold. Mirrors the 2018 pattern where USDT contraction gave approximately one month of warning before capitulation.
Stage 3 / Critical (Red + Triangle) — Supply prints a new lower low below the recent swing range. Per the 2022 LUNA precedent, capitulation followed within days of this signal firing.
Additional signals: Blue diamonds mark instances where USDC supply leads USDT into a lower low — the pattern observed in 2022 where USDC warned before the broader collapse. A purple background indicates BTC is simultaneously trading below its 100-week moving average, the highest-confidence confluence condition.
Settings
Parameter -- Default -- Description
ROC Period -- 7 days -- Lookback for rate-of-change calculation
Lower Low Lookback -- 30 days -- Window for Stage 3 swing low detection
Z-Score Lookback -- 90 days -- Normalization window for the main signal line
Stage 1 ROC Threshold -- -0.3% -- Growth slowing trigger
Stage 2 ROC Threshold-- -1.5% -- Active contraction trigger
BTC 100W MA Highlight -- On -- Purple background when BTC below 100-week MA
Show USDT/USDC Split -- On -- Plots individual stablecoin ROC lines
Notes
Best used as confluence alongside existing market structure analysis. Signals are most reliable on the daily timeframe. Historical data prior to 2020 is limited by stablecoin market size and data availability. Not financial advice.
Inspired by analysis from Blockchain Backer's January 2026 newsletter on stablecoin supply dynamics.
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Script de código abierto
Fiel al espíritu de TradingView, el creador de este script lo ha convertido en código abierto, para que los traders puedan revisar y verificar su funcionalidad. ¡Enhorabuena al autor! Aunque puede utilizarlo de forma gratuita, recuerde que cualquier republicación del código está sujeta a nuestras Normas internas.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como, asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading u otro tipo, proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Obtenga más información en Condiciones de uso.