AMZN | ABC Correction Done — Break The HVA And Run!

By analyzing the #AMZN (Amazon) chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that the broader trend remains bullish, and the internal corrective phase looks to be wrapping up. Price is now compressing at a decisive volume level — and a clean break of it is the trigger for the next leg toward the liquidity above.

📊 4H Timeframe
On the 4H, the bigger picture is an uptrend riding inside its rising channel, with price holding comfortably above the Protected Low at $195.91. Within that uptrend, price went through an internal correction: it printed a bearish internal CHoCH, followed by several bearish BOS on the way down, taking price into the demand area near the Order Block ($219.58 – $226.49).

That corrective phase is now over. Price broke the Protected High of the internal downtrend at $249.51 with an impulsive wave — the structural signal that buyers reclaimed control. Since that break, price has been unwinding in a three-wave (a)-(b)-(c) correction, and it's currently trading around $242.89, sitting right at the High Value Area (HVA) of the volume profile — the heaviest-traded level on the chart and the battleground that decides the next move.

🎯 The Bias
My base case is bullish continuation, but it needs confirmation. The trigger I want is a clear candle close above the High Value Area — that would confirm buyers have absorbed the heaviest volume on the chart and complete the corrective structure. On that break, the path opens toward the levels overhead at $249.75 and $253.45, and then the buy-side liquidity (BSL) resting at $278.82, with the trend continuing inside its channel. In my view, as long as AMZN holds above the Protected Low ($195.91), the uptrend stays intact and every dip remains constructive — but until that HVA gives way on a decisive close, price can keep consolidating here.

📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The technical setup lines up with a strong catalyst calendar. Amazon reports Q2 2026 results on July 30 after the US close — the key near-term event, with Wall Street modeling EPS of $1.82 (up from $1.68 a year ago) on revenue near $196 billion, and the company itself having guided to $194–199 billion. The quarter is expected to benefit from Prime Day shifting into Q2, continued AWS acceleration, and a record advertising business. Sentiment into the print is bullish: analysts carry a Strong Buy consensus, KeyBanc just raised its target to $335, and Bank of America projects around $198.8 billion in revenue with roughly 33% AWS cloud growth on enterprise AI adoption — noting that Amazon's expanding relationship with Anthropic alone could add more than $1.5 billion in sequential AWS revenue. The risk to respect is the spending: 2026 capex is tracking toward roughly $200 billion (BofA thinks the outlook could rise to ~$210 billion on higher memory costs), Amazon launched a $25 billion bond sale to fund it, and there's about $1 billion in incremental costs from the Leo satellite build ahead of a Q3 launch — all of which could pressure near-term margins. Net-net: the fundamentals support the bullish structure, but July 30 is a binary event that could easily be the catalyst that resolves this HVA battle in either direction.

This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see Amazon heading next! Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳

BigBeluga

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par BigBeluga

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