Thesis:
BABA has delivered a clean five-wave move higher followed by a three-wave ABC correction. This is exactly the type of Wave 2 structure where I am most comfortable adding to a long-term position.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- Five-wave impulsive move completed around $180
- Three-wave ABC pullback followed
- Price briefly moved back below the 200-week MA during the correction
- Our current average is approximately $111
- We added at $94 in June when price was trading below the 200-week MA, followed by a bounce of roughly 30%
What I see
- The ABC correction appears structurally complete
- Price has reacted strongly from the Wave 2 low and is now rebuilding above the 200-week MA
- The 0.5 Fib sits around $123 and the 0.618 Fib around $106
- The 50-day MA around $115 sits directly inside that retracement area
- That makes the $110-116 region the most interesting confluence zone for me
- Weekly RSI also reacted from deeply depressed levels and is beginning to turn higher
What matters now
- I want to see price continue holding above the 200-week MA around $102-105
- The $115 area is the first important zone to watch during this recovery
- Reclaiming the 50-week MA would strengthen the case that the next impulsive leg is developing
- I do not expect another clean opportunity below the 200-week MA, although markets can always surprise us
Buy / Accumulation zone
- Our current average is approximately $111
- Current preferred add zone: $110-116
- The 50-day MA and 0.5-0.618 Fib retracement create strong confluence in this area
- If price gives us another opportunity around these levels, BABA is high on my list for an additional buy
- A second future accumulation zone sits around $215 if Wave 3 develops as expected and is later followed by a Wave 4 pullback
Targets
- Target 1: approximately $290
- Target 2: approximately $340
- Target 3: approximately $420
Execution note
Wave 2 pullbacks are where I am generally most comfortable adding. We already showed conviction when BABA traded at $94 in June, below its 200-week MA, and that position quickly moved around 30% higher.
The objective is not to chase those moves. I would rather add when price comes back into a technically attractive area and trim portions of the position as major targets are reached.
With our average around $111, BABA is now one of the positions I am watching most closely for another add.
BABA has delivered a clean five-wave move higher followed by a three-wave ABC correction. This is exactly the type of Wave 2 structure where I am most comfortable adding to a long-term position.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- Five-wave impulsive move completed around $180
- Three-wave ABC pullback followed
- Price briefly moved back below the 200-week MA during the correction
- Our current average is approximately $111
- We added at $94 in June when price was trading below the 200-week MA, followed by a bounce of roughly 30%
What I see
- The ABC correction appears structurally complete
- Price has reacted strongly from the Wave 2 low and is now rebuilding above the 200-week MA
- The 0.5 Fib sits around $123 and the 0.618 Fib around $106
- The 50-day MA around $115 sits directly inside that retracement area
- That makes the $110-116 region the most interesting confluence zone for me
- Weekly RSI also reacted from deeply depressed levels and is beginning to turn higher
What matters now
- I want to see price continue holding above the 200-week MA around $102-105
- The $115 area is the first important zone to watch during this recovery
- Reclaiming the 50-week MA would strengthen the case that the next impulsive leg is developing
- I do not expect another clean opportunity below the 200-week MA, although markets can always surprise us
Buy / Accumulation zone
- Our current average is approximately $111
- Current preferred add zone: $110-116
- The 50-day MA and 0.5-0.618 Fib retracement create strong confluence in this area
- If price gives us another opportunity around these levels, BABA is high on my list for an additional buy
- A second future accumulation zone sits around $215 if Wave 3 develops as expected and is later followed by a Wave 4 pullback
Targets
- Target 1: approximately $290
- Target 2: approximately $340
- Target 3: approximately $420
Execution note
Wave 2 pullbacks are where I am generally most comfortable adding. We already showed conviction when BABA traded at $94 in June, below its 200-week MA, and that position quickly moved around 30% higher.
The objective is not to chase those moves. I would rather add when price comes back into a technically attractive area and trim portions of the position as major targets are reached.
With our average around $111, BABA is now one of the positions I am watching most closely for another add.
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.