Hi traders, Anfibo’s here!
BTCUSD – Technical Outlook
Technical Structure:
On the higher intraday frame, BTC is running an H1 uptrend — higher highs / higher lows are still intact and the structure favors the bulls. However, on the lower intraday frame (M15) price is trapped inside a short-term descending trend, creating compression between the bullish H1 bias and the bearish M15 micro-structure. That interaction is producing chop around the ~102,000 area and increases the value of waiting for a clean directional resolve (breakout + retest) before committing.
Daily Trading Strategy:
Our approach today is simple and veteran-focused: wait for the breakout of the conflicted edge and trade in the direction of the break after a proper test.
If price breaks up out of the M15 downtrend: wait for the pullback / downtest, then buy near the test level (~102,000).
If price breaks down through H1 support / the current compression: wait for the retest of that broken edge, then sell near ~102,000.
This “break → retest → trade” workflow avoids getting caught in false moves and puts probability in our favor.
Daily Trading Plan:
>>> SELL ZONE:
ENTRY: 101,500 – 102,500 (on confirmed breakdown + failed retest)
SL: 104,500 (above the immediate M15 channel / invalidation level)
TP: 96,000 (TP1) — 92,000 (TP2)
>>> BUY ZONE:
ENTRY: around 102,000 (on confirmed breakout + clean downtest)
SL: 99,500 (below the downtest low / invalidation level)
TP1: 108,000
TP2: 112,000
(Notes on entries: the same ~102k area becomes the decision point — trade only after structure confirms: for buys, look for bullish confirmation on the retest (rejection wick, bullish engulf, rising volume); for sells, look for bearish rejection on retest or inability to reclaim the edge.)
Risk Management:
Keep position sizes small-to-medium while the pair remains in a compressed range; risk 1–2% of equity per full setup.
Use stop losses as listed and never widen SL to “hope” — adjust size instead if you need a wider stop.
Prefer scaling: take a starter size at first confirmation and add only after the trade behaves in your favor (e.g., after TP1 or strong momentum continuation).
Avoid trading into major macro prints or news; if a scheduled event is imminent, reduce size or stand aside until clarity returns.
Conclusion:
Today’s market is a classic “higher-frame bias vs. lower-frame conflict” scenario. The H1 uptrend gives the structural edge to buyers, while the M15 downtrend supplies immediate supply and failure points. The correct, experienced play is to wait — only engage after a clear breakout of the micro-trend and a confirming retest around the decision area (~102k). Whether the trade becomes a buy or a sell, follow the break → retest → confirm discipline, manage risk tightly, and let price prove the direction before enlarging exposure.
GOODLUCK GUYS!!!
BTCUSD – Technical Outlook
Technical Structure:
On the higher intraday frame, BTC is running an H1 uptrend — higher highs / higher lows are still intact and the structure favors the bulls. However, on the lower intraday frame (M15) price is trapped inside a short-term descending trend, creating compression between the bullish H1 bias and the bearish M15 micro-structure. That interaction is producing chop around the ~102,000 area and increases the value of waiting for a clean directional resolve (breakout + retest) before committing.
Daily Trading Strategy:
Our approach today is simple and veteran-focused: wait for the breakout of the conflicted edge and trade in the direction of the break after a proper test.
If price breaks up out of the M15 downtrend: wait for the pullback / downtest, then buy near the test level (~102,000).
If price breaks down through H1 support / the current compression: wait for the retest of that broken edge, then sell near ~102,000.
This “break → retest → trade” workflow avoids getting caught in false moves and puts probability in our favor.
Daily Trading Plan:
>>> SELL ZONE:
ENTRY: 101,500 – 102,500 (on confirmed breakdown + failed retest)
SL: 104,500 (above the immediate M15 channel / invalidation level)
TP: 96,000 (TP1) — 92,000 (TP2)
>>> BUY ZONE:
ENTRY: around 102,000 (on confirmed breakout + clean downtest)
SL: 99,500 (below the downtest low / invalidation level)
TP1: 108,000
TP2: 112,000
(Notes on entries: the same ~102k area becomes the decision point — trade only after structure confirms: for buys, look for bullish confirmation on the retest (rejection wick, bullish engulf, rising volume); for sells, look for bearish rejection on retest or inability to reclaim the edge.)
Risk Management:
Keep position sizes small-to-medium while the pair remains in a compressed range; risk 1–2% of equity per full setup.
Use stop losses as listed and never widen SL to “hope” — adjust size instead if you need a wider stop.
Prefer scaling: take a starter size at first confirmation and add only after the trade behaves in your favor (e.g., after TP1 or strong momentum continuation).
Avoid trading into major macro prints or news; if a scheduled event is imminent, reduce size or stand aside until clarity returns.
Conclusion:
Today’s market is a classic “higher-frame bias vs. lower-frame conflict” scenario. The H1 uptrend gives the structural edge to buyers, while the M15 downtrend supplies immediate supply and failure points. The correct, experienced play is to wait — only engage after a clear breakout of the micro-trend and a confirming retest around the decision area (~102k). Whether the trade becomes a buy or a sell, follow the break → retest → confirm discipline, manage risk tightly, and let price prove the direction before enlarging exposure.
GOODLUCK GUYS!!!
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Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.