Clean downtrend intact since the June 15 high (66,700), lower highs into a declining AVWAP (purple) that's rolled over from 77,000 to 62,000.
Current bounce off the 58,000 low (PDL) has pushed price to 61,450 right into the falling AVWAP and just above PDH but the indicator still reads Bias: BEARISH with VWAP Dev -0.92%, meaning price hasn't actually reclaimed the AVWAP yet, it's pressing into it from below.
That's the key tell here: this looks like a pullback rally into institutional distribution rather than a trend change. Per the AVWAP reclaim/distribution logic, a real bull flip needs a close above the declining AVWAP (62,000) on above-average volume with the AVWAP itself turning up, none of that's confirmed yet.
Levels that matter:
60,000: the line in the sand. Acted as support/resistance since June 25, and it's what's holding the current bounce. Loss of this reopens 58,000 (PDL).
62,000: the declining AVWAP, current resistance. A volume-confirmed close above it is the first sign bias could flip.
66,000–67,000 (gold band) untested high-volume node above, likely the next magnet/resistance if 62,000 breaks.
58,000: PDL, downside invalidation for the bounce thesis.
Read: bearish structure still governs until AVWAP is reclaimed with volume. Until then this is a fade-the-rip setup into 62,000, not a long.
Current bounce off the 58,000 low (PDL) has pushed price to 61,450 right into the falling AVWAP and just above PDH but the indicator still reads Bias: BEARISH with VWAP Dev -0.92%, meaning price hasn't actually reclaimed the AVWAP yet, it's pressing into it from below.
That's the key tell here: this looks like a pullback rally into institutional distribution rather than a trend change. Per the AVWAP reclaim/distribution logic, a real bull flip needs a close above the declining AVWAP (62,000) on above-average volume with the AVWAP itself turning up, none of that's confirmed yet.
Levels that matter:
60,000: the line in the sand. Acted as support/resistance since June 25, and it's what's holding the current bounce. Loss of this reopens 58,000 (PDL).
62,000: the declining AVWAP, current resistance. A volume-confirmed close above it is the first sign bias could flip.
66,000–67,000 (gold band) untested high-volume node above, likely the next magnet/resistance if 62,000 breaks.
58,000: PDL, downside invalidation for the bounce thesis.
Read: bearish structure still governs until AVWAP is reclaimed with volume. Until then this is a fade-the-rip setup into 62,000, not a long.
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thecantillonreport.substack.com/?utm_source=tradingview
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Custom Institutional volume terminal included with paid sub
thecantillonreport.substack.com/?utm_source=tradingview
cantillonresearch.com/
youtube.com/@cantillonresearch
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Daily top picks analysis → free & paid tiers
Custom Institutional volume terminal included with paid sub
thecantillonreport.substack.com/?utm_source=tradingview
cantillonresearch.com/
youtube.com/@cantillonresearch
Custom Institutional volume terminal included with paid sub
thecantillonreport.substack.com/?utm_source=tradingview
cantillonresearch.com/
youtube.com/@cantillonresearch
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.