Bitcoin dipped slightly after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh tightened financial conditions again in his speech at Jackson Hole. Despite this, the cryptocurrency has shown remarkable resilience and continues to consolidate near its recent highs. A break above the resistance zone around $82,800, which also corresponds to the highs reached in May, could signal an acceleration of the upward movement.
Bitcoin, like other assets such as gold and the US dollar, has historically shown some sensitivity to changes in interest rates and liquidity conditions. When Warsh indicated at Jackson Hole that it would be difficult to describe overall financial conditions as restrictive, the market interpreted his words as a contradictory signal to the recent easing of financial conditions and began to price in a scenario of higher interest rates. This movement was particularly reflected in the yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which rose by more than 15 basis points. As a result, the dollar strengthened and gold suffered a considerable drop, movements consistent with a scenario of monetary tightening.
However, Bitcoin did not fully follow this pattern. One possible explanation is that Bitcoin demand is increasingly responding to structural factors inherent to the asset and less exclusively to interest rate expectations. The perception of Bitcoin as a scarce asset, its growing integration into institutional portfolios, and the demand associated with investment vehicles linked to the cryptocurrency may be providing support that partially offsets the negative impact of tighter financial conditions. Furthermore, part of the market may be interpreting the current tightening of interest rate expectations as a temporary factor, while maintaining a favorable outlook on the evolution of liquidity and institutional demand in the medium term. This combination would help explain why, despite the strengthening dollar and the correction in gold, Bitcoin quickly recovered from its initial slight decline and continues to show strength.
Therefore, Warsh's speech has brought about a change in the market scenario. Gold and the US dollar have returned to levels close to those seen before the US Treasury's bond buyback announcement. Bitcoin, however, remains remarkably resilient and continues its consolidation near recent highs. This divergence is particularly relevant because it suggests that Bitcoin's performance may be increasingly driven by its own demand flows rather than the traditional relationship with interest rates.
Given this shift in fundamental factors, technical indicators could become more important in determining the direction of the next move. The downtrend line that began in October 2025 was broken to the upside following the US Treasury's bond buyback announcement, a move that also boosted gold and weakened the US dollar.
The key technical level to watch is now $81,200, the first resistance level. A break above this level would confirm a further strengthening of the bullish structure. A clear break above this level would pave the way to the next target zone, located around $97,600.
Miguel A. Rodriguez
Latam Regional Market Strategy - TabTrade
Bitcoin, like other assets such as gold and the US dollar, has historically shown some sensitivity to changes in interest rates and liquidity conditions. When Warsh indicated at Jackson Hole that it would be difficult to describe overall financial conditions as restrictive, the market interpreted his words as a contradictory signal to the recent easing of financial conditions and began to price in a scenario of higher interest rates. This movement was particularly reflected in the yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which rose by more than 15 basis points. As a result, the dollar strengthened and gold suffered a considerable drop, movements consistent with a scenario of monetary tightening.
However, Bitcoin did not fully follow this pattern. One possible explanation is that Bitcoin demand is increasingly responding to structural factors inherent to the asset and less exclusively to interest rate expectations. The perception of Bitcoin as a scarce asset, its growing integration into institutional portfolios, and the demand associated with investment vehicles linked to the cryptocurrency may be providing support that partially offsets the negative impact of tighter financial conditions. Furthermore, part of the market may be interpreting the current tightening of interest rate expectations as a temporary factor, while maintaining a favorable outlook on the evolution of liquidity and institutional demand in the medium term. This combination would help explain why, despite the strengthening dollar and the correction in gold, Bitcoin quickly recovered from its initial slight decline and continues to show strength.
Therefore, Warsh's speech has brought about a change in the market scenario. Gold and the US dollar have returned to levels close to those seen before the US Treasury's bond buyback announcement. Bitcoin, however, remains remarkably resilient and continues its consolidation near recent highs. This divergence is particularly relevant because it suggests that Bitcoin's performance may be increasingly driven by its own demand flows rather than the traditional relationship with interest rates.
Given this shift in fundamental factors, technical indicators could become more important in determining the direction of the next move. The downtrend line that began in October 2025 was broken to the upside following the US Treasury's bond buyback announcement, a move that also boosted gold and weakened the US dollar.
The key technical level to watch is now $81,200, the first resistance level. A break above this level would confirm a further strengthening of the bullish structure. A clear break above this level would pave the way to the next target zone, located around $97,600.
Miguel A. Rodriguez
Latam Regional Market Strategy - TabTrade
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Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.