As predicted in my previous analysis 
Bitcoin followed our roadmap to the dollar. We saw the exact flush to the $86k demand zone, followed by a surge back to $90,300 where price faced the rejection we anticipated. Now, the market has coiled into a tight wedge, setting the stage for the next decisive move.
Bitcoin is coiled in a converging wedge with just $214 of breathing room between ascending support ($87,533) and descending resistance ($87,319). With 10 touches validating that support line and volume 68% below average, we're in the calm before the storm. Breakout expected within 10 bars, here's how to position for it.
1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY 📉
• Price trading below all three major EMAs (20/50/200) creating overhead resistance
• Wedge compression to $214 width signals forced resolution imminent
• 40.2% lower wick vs 40.9% upper wick = perfect equilibrium between bulls and bears
• 10 touches on ascending support from $84,408 make this an exceptionally validated trendline
2. THE INDICATORS ⚖️
Bearish Signals:
• MACD bearish with line at 84.29 below signal at 90.08
• Trading below entire EMA cluster creates natural resistance
• Recent rejection at bearish order block ($90,599-$89,109)
Bullish Signals:
• Bullish order block at $87,555-$86,760 aligns with ascending support
• RSI at 51 shows room to move either direction
• Ascending trendline has held 10 consecutive tests
The Conflict:
MFI at 49.7 and volume 68% below average ($4,999 vs $15,693) reveal neither side has conviction. The market is waiting for a catalyst to commit capital.
3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯
🔴 Scenario A: Wedge Breakdown (Higher Probability)
• Trigger: 4H close below $87,533 with above-average volume
• Entry: $87,400 on confirmed break
• Target 1: $86,355 (1.4% move, recent swing low)
• Target 2: $85,073 if selling accelerates
• Stop: $88,200 (0.8% risk = 1.6:1 R/R to first target)
🟢 Scenario B: Wedge Breakout (Lower Probability)
• Trigger: Reclaim $88,200 and break through EMA cluster
• Entry: Break above $89,557 (immediate resistance)
• Target: $90,599 (bearish OB), extended to $92,018 (premium zone)
• Invalidation: Failure to hold $88,200 on retest
CRITICAL LEVEL: 4H close above $90,599 invalidates the entire bearish thesis and signals Change of Character bullish.
MY VERDICT
The setup slightly favors bears at 72% confidence due to EMA structure and MACD momentum, but that ascending support has earned respect with 10 touches. I'm treating this as a patience game, waiting for the wedge to break with volume confirmation rather than front-running. The compression rate suggests resolution within 24-48 hours. When a trendline this validated breaks, stop losses cascade and accelerate the move.
Bitcoin is coiled in a converging wedge with just $214 of breathing room between ascending support ($87,533) and descending resistance ($87,319). With 10 touches validating that support line and volume 68% below average, we're in the calm before the storm. Breakout expected within 10 bars, here's how to position for it.
1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY 📉
• Price trading below all three major EMAs (20/50/200) creating overhead resistance
• Wedge compression to $214 width signals forced resolution imminent
• 40.2% lower wick vs 40.9% upper wick = perfect equilibrium between bulls and bears
• 10 touches on ascending support from $84,408 make this an exceptionally validated trendline
2. THE INDICATORS ⚖️
Bearish Signals:
• MACD bearish with line at 84.29 below signal at 90.08
• Trading below entire EMA cluster creates natural resistance
• Recent rejection at bearish order block ($90,599-$89,109)
Bullish Signals:
• Bullish order block at $87,555-$86,760 aligns with ascending support
• RSI at 51 shows room to move either direction
• Ascending trendline has held 10 consecutive tests
The Conflict:
MFI at 49.7 and volume 68% below average ($4,999 vs $15,693) reveal neither side has conviction. The market is waiting for a catalyst to commit capital.
3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯
🔴 Scenario A: Wedge Breakdown (Higher Probability)
• Trigger: 4H close below $87,533 with above-average volume
• Entry: $87,400 on confirmed break
• Target 1: $86,355 (1.4% move, recent swing low)
• Target 2: $85,073 if selling accelerates
• Stop: $88,200 (0.8% risk = 1.6:1 R/R to first target)
🟢 Scenario B: Wedge Breakout (Lower Probability)
• Trigger: Reclaim $88,200 and break through EMA cluster
• Entry: Break above $89,557 (immediate resistance)
• Target: $90,599 (bearish OB), extended to $92,018 (premium zone)
• Invalidation: Failure to hold $88,200 on retest
CRITICAL LEVEL: 4H close above $90,599 invalidates the entire bearish thesis and signals Change of Character bullish.
MY VERDICT
The setup slightly favors bears at 72% confidence due to EMA structure and MACD momentum, but that ascending support has earned respect with 10 touches. I'm treating this as a patience game, waiting for the wedge to break with volume confirmation rather than front-running. The compression rate suggests resolution within 24-48 hours. When a trendline this validated breaks, stop losses cascade and accelerate the move.
Note
Price is still fighting the descending resistance area. Keep your eyes on it.
Join the free Telegram channel
💎 Telegram Channel: t.me/MonoCoin_Public
🔔 Bot: t.me/MonoCoinSignal_Bot?start=starter_tv
🌐 Website: MonoCoin.net
⭐️ 5-Star TrustPilot: trustpilot.com/review/monocoin.net
💎 Telegram Channel: t.me/MonoCoin_Public
🔔 Bot: t.me/MonoCoinSignal_Bot?start=starter_tv
🌐 Website: MonoCoin.net
⭐️ 5-Star TrustPilot: trustpilot.com/review/monocoin.net
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Join the free Telegram channel
💎 Telegram Channel: t.me/MonoCoin_Public
🔔 Bot: t.me/MonoCoinSignal_Bot?start=starter_tv
🌐 Website: MonoCoin.net
⭐️ 5-Star TrustPilot: trustpilot.com/review/monocoin.net
💎 Telegram Channel: t.me/MonoCoin_Public
🔔 Bot: t.me/MonoCoinSignal_Bot?start=starter_tv
🌐 Website: MonoCoin.net
⭐️ 5-Star TrustPilot: trustpilot.com/review/monocoin.net
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.