The Market Flow | October 26, 2025
Technical Overview
Monthly:
• The bearish countertrend from the 108.50 pivot remains active but is slowing after completing a 138.2% Fibonacci projection.
• Price structure is consolidating above the 95.99 breakout base, showing early signs of phase rotation.
• A monthly close above 100.80 would confirm a higher timeframe structural shift.
Weekly:
• The down impulse reached the 138.2% target near 95.99 and turned higher into corrective structure.
• The active weekly pivot at 98.54 defines current bias.
• The correction phase persists toward the 38.2% retracement at 101.43, with 106.64 as weekly expansion resistance.
• Structure favors continuation within a developing countertrend recovery channel.
Daily:
• The daily trend remains bullish above 98.54, with higher lows intact.
• Price currently trades within the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (98.75–98.85), overlapping with the H4 expansion base — a structural sweet spot of alignment between the daily and H4 expansion phases.
• A sustained move above the green countertrend line confirms continuation toward 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43.
• The active daily pivot at 98.12 defines primary invalidation for the short-term bullish structure.
H4:
• Consolidation within the 61.8% Fibonacci zone supports accumulation before potential expansion.
• A confirmed H4 close above 99.25 (EXP) initiates the expansion phase toward 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43 → 101.94.
• Failure to hold 98.12 (D Pivot) neutralizes the short-term phase alignment and reopens 97.70.
Trade Structure & Levels
• Bias: Long above 97.70
• Trigger = H4 > 99.25 → clean H4 breakdown (EXP line)
• Primary Invalidation = 98.12 (D Pivot)
• Secondary Invalidation = 98.54 (W Pivot)
• Path → 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43
• Phase: Countertrend Break → Expansion Setup (Daily–H4 Confluence Zone)
Risk & Event Context
• U.S. macro data (PCE inflation, Treasury auctions, and Fed commentary) may drive volatility near key resistance zones.
• Momentum confirmation above 99.25 aligns all active timeframes in expansion phase.
Conclusion
DXY sits within a confluence of daily and H4 61.8% target Fibonacci zone — a structural sweet spot supporting continuation of the expansion phase. A H4 break above 99.25 would validate alignment across both timeframes, targeting the 100–101.40 zone.
Technical Overview
Monthly:
• The bearish countertrend from the 108.50 pivot remains active but is slowing after completing a 138.2% Fibonacci projection.
• Price structure is consolidating above the 95.99 breakout base, showing early signs of phase rotation.
• A monthly close above 100.80 would confirm a higher timeframe structural shift.
Weekly:
• The down impulse reached the 138.2% target near 95.99 and turned higher into corrective structure.
• The active weekly pivot at 98.54 defines current bias.
• The correction phase persists toward the 38.2% retracement at 101.43, with 106.64 as weekly expansion resistance.
• Structure favors continuation within a developing countertrend recovery channel.
Daily:
• The daily trend remains bullish above 98.54, with higher lows intact.
• Price currently trades within the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (98.75–98.85), overlapping with the H4 expansion base — a structural sweet spot of alignment between the daily and H4 expansion phases.
• A sustained move above the green countertrend line confirms continuation toward 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43.
• The active daily pivot at 98.12 defines primary invalidation for the short-term bullish structure.
H4:
• Consolidation within the 61.8% Fibonacci zone supports accumulation before potential expansion.
• A confirmed H4 close above 99.25 (EXP) initiates the expansion phase toward 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43 → 101.94.
• Failure to hold 98.12 (D Pivot) neutralizes the short-term phase alignment and reopens 97.70.
Trade Structure & Levels
• Bias: Long above 97.70
• Trigger = H4 > 99.25 → clean H4 breakdown (EXP line)
• Primary Invalidation = 98.12 (D Pivot)
• Secondary Invalidation = 98.54 (W Pivot)
• Path → 99.97 → 100.81 → 101.43
• Phase: Countertrend Break → Expansion Setup (Daily–H4 Confluence Zone)
Risk & Event Context
• U.S. macro data (PCE inflation, Treasury auctions, and Fed commentary) may drive volatility near key resistance zones.
• Momentum confirmation above 99.25 aligns all active timeframes in expansion phase.
Conclusion
DXY sits within a confluence of daily and H4 61.8% target Fibonacci zone — a structural sweet spot supporting continuation of the expansion phase. A H4 break above 99.25 would validate alignment across both timeframes, targeting the 100–101.40 zone.
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Decisions are — once accounts are funded.
Trader | Execution & funded-account diagnostics
More charts on X 👉🏼 x.com/zentrdr
Trading Psychology and Decision Making on Substack 👉🏼 themarketflow.trading/
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Charts aren’t the problem.
Decisions are — once accounts are funded.
Trader | Execution & funded-account diagnostics
More charts on X 👉🏼 x.com/zentrdr
Trading Psychology and Decision Making on Substack 👉🏼 themarketflow.trading/
Decisions are — once accounts are funded.
Trader | Execution & funded-account diagnostics
More charts on X 👉🏼 x.com/zentrdr
Trading Psychology and Decision Making on Substack 👉🏼 themarketflow.trading/
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.