Yesterday was rough for tech with Nasdaq dropping over 1.3% after GOOGL's capex guidance spooked the market. MSFT down nearly 5% didn't help either. But overnight we got some relief - Amazon announcing $200B in AI infrastructure spending gave futures a decent lift. VIX pulled back from the 21+ levels which is helping stabilize things a bit.
ES bounced off the 6820 area and pushed back up toward the prior range. We're currently sitting around the 6850-6860 zone which is right at VWAP and the prior day's equilibrium. The bounce looks corrective so far rather than impulsive.
Forecast:
- Overnight: Choppy consolidation with slight upward drift
- Morning Session: Expecting a push into 6865-6875 resistance zone
- Afternoon: Likely fade if rejection at resistance holds
- Daily Close: Targeting below 6850 if short setup triggers
- Expected Range: 6825 to 6890
- Most Likely Path: Grind up into 6865-6875, find sellers, mean revert back toward 6840-6825
Friday Events:
- Pre-market: Watching for continuation of tech bounce
- Morning: Jobs data aftermath still influencing sentiment
- VIX: Currently around 20 - elevated but cooling
- After the bell: Light earnings calendar
Resistance:
- 6960-7005 – Major resistance, 7005 is the RTH High from earlier this week
- 6900-6920 – Upper resistance zone, would need strong momentum to reach
- 6880-6890 – Secondary resistance, this is where the short thesis gets invalidated
- 6865-6875 – Primary zone of interest, entry zone for mean reversion short
Support:
- 6845-6840 – First support and T1 target for shorts
- 6825-6835 – T2 target zone, prior support area
- 6800-6820 – Major support and T3, this is the key level bulls need to hold
- 6760-6780 – Deep support, only in play if 6800 breaks
Critical Level:
- 6850 – VWAP and equilibrium pivot, the line in the sand for intraday bias
Strategic Bias - Mean Reversion Short:
The setup here is a mean reversion short looking for a fade off the 6865-6875 resistance zone. Here's the thinking:
- Structure: The 1H chart shows a lower high pattern forming. Yesterday's selloff created a clear supply zone in the 6865-6890 area. The overnight bounce looks like a retracement into that supply rather than a trend reversal.
- Context: Despite the bounce, the broader picture still shows weakness. Tech got hit hard and one Amazon headline doesn't fix the GOOGL/MSFT damage. Buyers need to prove themselves above 6880 for me to flip bullish.
- The Play: Looking for price to push into 6865-6875 and show rejection (wicks, failed breakout, momentum divergence). If we get that, the trade is short targeting VWAP at 6850 first, then 6840, with a runner toward 6825.
- Risk: Stop above 6881. If price closes above that level with momentum, the lower high thesis is dead and shorts need to step aside.
- Invalidation: A strong push through 6890 with follow-through would shift bias to neutral/bullish and open up a run toward 6920+.
How I'm seeing it:
- Bearish bias below 6880, looking for mean reversion short at 6865-6875
- First target is VWAP at 6850, then 6840, extended target 6825
- If 6881 breaks with conviction, step aside - bulls taking control
- Below 6800 would confirm broader weakness and open 6760-6780
The overnight bounce gave us a setup. Now it's about waiting for price to reach the zone and show its hand. No need to chase - let the trade come to us.
Good Luck !!!
ES bounced off the 6820 area and pushed back up toward the prior range. We're currently sitting around the 6850-6860 zone which is right at VWAP and the prior day's equilibrium. The bounce looks corrective so far rather than impulsive.
Forecast:
- Overnight: Choppy consolidation with slight upward drift
- Morning Session: Expecting a push into 6865-6875 resistance zone
- Afternoon: Likely fade if rejection at resistance holds
- Daily Close: Targeting below 6850 if short setup triggers
- Expected Range: 6825 to 6890
- Most Likely Path: Grind up into 6865-6875, find sellers, mean revert back toward 6840-6825
Friday Events:
- Pre-market: Watching for continuation of tech bounce
- Morning: Jobs data aftermath still influencing sentiment
- VIX: Currently around 20 - elevated but cooling
- After the bell: Light earnings calendar
Resistance:
- 6960-7005 – Major resistance, 7005 is the RTH High from earlier this week
- 6900-6920 – Upper resistance zone, would need strong momentum to reach
- 6880-6890 – Secondary resistance, this is where the short thesis gets invalidated
- 6865-6875 – Primary zone of interest, entry zone for mean reversion short
Support:
- 6845-6840 – First support and T1 target for shorts
- 6825-6835 – T2 target zone, prior support area
- 6800-6820 – Major support and T3, this is the key level bulls need to hold
- 6760-6780 – Deep support, only in play if 6800 breaks
Critical Level:
- 6850 – VWAP and equilibrium pivot, the line in the sand for intraday bias
Strategic Bias - Mean Reversion Short:
The setup here is a mean reversion short looking for a fade off the 6865-6875 resistance zone. Here's the thinking:
- Structure: The 1H chart shows a lower high pattern forming. Yesterday's selloff created a clear supply zone in the 6865-6890 area. The overnight bounce looks like a retracement into that supply rather than a trend reversal.
- Context: Despite the bounce, the broader picture still shows weakness. Tech got hit hard and one Amazon headline doesn't fix the GOOGL/MSFT damage. Buyers need to prove themselves above 6880 for me to flip bullish.
- The Play: Looking for price to push into 6865-6875 and show rejection (wicks, failed breakout, momentum divergence). If we get that, the trade is short targeting VWAP at 6850 first, then 6840, with a runner toward 6825.
- Risk: Stop above 6881. If price closes above that level with momentum, the lower high thesis is dead and shorts need to step aside.
- Invalidation: A strong push through 6890 with follow-through would shift bias to neutral/bullish and open up a run toward 6920+.
How I'm seeing it:
- Bearish bias below 6880, looking for mean reversion short at 6865-6875
- First target is VWAP at 6850, then 6840, extended target 6825
- If 6881 breaks with conviction, step aside - bulls taking control
- Below 6800 would confirm broader weakness and open 6760-6780
The overnight bounce gave us a setup. Now it's about waiting for price to reach the zone and show its hand. No need to chase - let the trade come to us.
Good Luck !!!
info@algoindex.com, algoindex.com | Join our free trading community: facebook.com/groups/1256769122661043
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
info@algoindex.com, algoindex.com | Join our free trading community: facebook.com/groups/1256769122661043
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.