IBEX 35 Hits Historic Levels, Facing the Challenge of Winning Back Retail Investors
Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
01/12/2025
The IBEX 35 has officially returned to territory unseen since 2007. The Spanish benchmark is trading at historic highs and has established itself in 2025 as the best-performing stock index in Europe, surprisingly outperforming major U.S. benchmarks. Over the past three years, its returns have doubled the average of Wall Street, driven by a combination of corporate strength and a domestic economy that continues to outpace the eurozone.
In this context, Juan Flames, CEO of BME, sends a clear message: the Spanish market is doing well, but complacency is not an option. “We need to win back retail investors, and for that, we must return to the spirit of the 1990s,” he notes. During that period, 38% of privatizations were financed by small investors, fueling an unprecedented cycle of stock market growth.
A Solid Market… but with Pending Challenges
The IBEX’s strong performance is backed by fundamentals. Spanish companies are contributing decisively: expanding profits and offering a dividend yield of 4.2%, well above the European average. At the same time, Spain’s economy is growing faster than the eurozone in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2025.
However, as Flames pointed out, Spain still faces structural challenges. More listed companies and deeper markets are needed. After a peak in IPOs in 2020, activity slowed noticeably. BME is now addressing this through reforms inspired by the White Paper, which proposes 56 measures to modernize the capital markets. Key initiatives include:
BME Easy Access, a new segment that simplifies IPO processes after decades of stagnation.
Reduced brokerage fees, encouraging new investors to enter the market.
Spanish traders have long sought these changes, as U.S. markets are often more cost-effective, offering higher daily trading volumes and a wider variety of companies. By reinforcing both capital supply and demand, and focusing on bringing retail investors back to a market reminiscent of the 1990s—where international access was more limited—Spain aligns with the European initiative to create a “pan-European savings and investment account.”
Similar strategies can be seen elsewhere: the London Stock Exchange consolidates trading volumes to prevent dilution into international markets, while emerging U.S. regional exchanges aim to reduce costs for companies compared to major indices like Nasdaq or NYSE. This regionalist approach seems increasingly popular.
Technical Analysis: Impeccably Bullish Trend
Technically, the IBEX 35 shows one of the cleanest uptrends in recent years. Breaking 16,500 points confirmed a new upward leg, projecting the index toward its next major challenge: 17,000 points, now the main psychological and technical resistance.
Meanwhile, moving averages continue to act as dynamic support. Key levels to watch: 16,144 points (50-day moving average) and 15,755.98 points (200-day moving average). With a bullish opening above 16,300, the index appears set to retest the mid-November highs. The RSI currently sits in a neutral zone at 56.61%, while the MACD is recovering into positive territory, with the histogram beginning a bullish phase. The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse signals market neutrality with a gradual increase in risk, indicating institutional entries ahead of the year-end rally typical for this season.
With banks and energy stocks driving market momentum, the IBEX maintains a structure of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the potential for further upside if immediate resistance is surpassed.
Conclusion
Spain is experiencing an unusually favorable stock market environment. Prices are rising, macroeconomic conditions are supportive, and companies are posting strong figures. Yet the real challenge lies beyond the charts: attracting more companies to list and bringing retail investors back—key elements to consolidate the Spanish market as a genuine alternative for financing and savings.
If this balance is achieved, the outlook for the IBEX 35 could prove even more promising than its historic highs.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
01/12/2025
The IBEX 35 has officially returned to territory unseen since 2007. The Spanish benchmark is trading at historic highs and has established itself in 2025 as the best-performing stock index in Europe, surprisingly outperforming major U.S. benchmarks. Over the past three years, its returns have doubled the average of Wall Street, driven by a combination of corporate strength and a domestic economy that continues to outpace the eurozone.
In this context, Juan Flames, CEO of BME, sends a clear message: the Spanish market is doing well, but complacency is not an option. “We need to win back retail investors, and for that, we must return to the spirit of the 1990s,” he notes. During that period, 38% of privatizations were financed by small investors, fueling an unprecedented cycle of stock market growth.
A Solid Market… but with Pending Challenges
The IBEX’s strong performance is backed by fundamentals. Spanish companies are contributing decisively: expanding profits and offering a dividend yield of 4.2%, well above the European average. At the same time, Spain’s economy is growing faster than the eurozone in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2025.
However, as Flames pointed out, Spain still faces structural challenges. More listed companies and deeper markets are needed. After a peak in IPOs in 2020, activity slowed noticeably. BME is now addressing this through reforms inspired by the White Paper, which proposes 56 measures to modernize the capital markets. Key initiatives include:
BME Easy Access, a new segment that simplifies IPO processes after decades of stagnation.
Reduced brokerage fees, encouraging new investors to enter the market.
Spanish traders have long sought these changes, as U.S. markets are often more cost-effective, offering higher daily trading volumes and a wider variety of companies. By reinforcing both capital supply and demand, and focusing on bringing retail investors back to a market reminiscent of the 1990s—where international access was more limited—Spain aligns with the European initiative to create a “pan-European savings and investment account.”
Similar strategies can be seen elsewhere: the London Stock Exchange consolidates trading volumes to prevent dilution into international markets, while emerging U.S. regional exchanges aim to reduce costs for companies compared to major indices like Nasdaq or NYSE. This regionalist approach seems increasingly popular.
Technical Analysis: Impeccably Bullish Trend
Technically, the IBEX 35 shows one of the cleanest uptrends in recent years. Breaking 16,500 points confirmed a new upward leg, projecting the index toward its next major challenge: 17,000 points, now the main psychological and technical resistance.
Meanwhile, moving averages continue to act as dynamic support. Key levels to watch: 16,144 points (50-day moving average) and 15,755.98 points (200-day moving average). With a bullish opening above 16,300, the index appears set to retest the mid-November highs. The RSI currently sits in a neutral zone at 56.61%, while the MACD is recovering into positive territory, with the histogram beginning a bullish phase. The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse signals market neutrality with a gradual increase in risk, indicating institutional entries ahead of the year-end rally typical for this season.
With banks and energy stocks driving market momentum, the IBEX maintains a structure of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the potential for further upside if immediate resistance is surpassed.
Conclusion
Spain is experiencing an unusually favorable stock market environment. Prices are rising, macroeconomic conditions are supportive, and companies are posting strong figures. Yet the real challenge lies beyond the charts: attracting more companies to list and bringing retail investors back—key elements to consolidate the Spanish market as a genuine alternative for financing and savings.
If this balance is achieved, the outlook for the IBEX 35 could prove even more promising than its historic highs.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.