EURUSD: three paths and none of them easy

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For the third month in a row EURUSD closes below the highs of the period — buyers fail to break through, while the 200 EMA adds extra pressure from above. On the other hand, every dip is aggressively bought, leaving sellers unable to reverse the trend. The dollar index has been stuck in the 98.50–97.50 range for eight weeks, and each attempt to strengthen pushes it lower again. Against this backdrop, three scenarios remain on the table.

First scenario: short positions with tight stops from 1.1780, targeting 1.1600 and 1.1400, where reversal patterns may appear.
Second scenario: continuation of sideways trading, prioritizing shorts while price remains below 1.1780.
Third scenario: breakout above 1.1780 with a move toward 1.2200, where selling opportunities may arise, followed by a correction and renewed buying with the trend.

All actions depend on entry points, and each entry has its own rules. Questions? Let me know.

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