GLD Daily Close — Sep 9The level held. This was the point I made in yesterday's summary, and I added long from there.
Where it held is worth being precise about. Yesterday's close was 399.72 — actually just under the round number. What held was 399.33: the Key Level, and the lower edge of the MTF cloud (ripster47 EMA cloud) sitting right on top of it. Three reasons stacked in one point. Today the 400 psych number held properly, with a 401.18 low.
One correction on my own wording from yesterday: I called it a big wide-spread candle. Checking the chart, the range was 4.80 against a 7.90 ATR — 61% of a normal day. Below average. I'll flag that because it changes the read: a genuinely wide-spread down bar on low volume is a bullish sign, sellers stepping back. A narrow one closing on its low is much weaker. Yesterday was the second one.
Today the market opened with a gap up — and got rejected right at the 5-12 ripster47 EMA cloud. High of 406.56, straight into the underside of the cloud, then faded to close 403.35, giving back 60% of the day's range.
That rejection came on 8.04M shares against a 12.02M average — 67% relative volume, below average and below yesterday. Up bar, low volume, close in the lower half, into resistance. That's No Demand. Price went up because nobody was selling, not because anybody was buying.
Zoom out on the volume and it's the real story: 9.82M, then 8.68M, then 8.04M. Three days of it drying up. Sellers aren't pressing 400 and buyers aren't taking 407. Both sides are out. Compression like that resolves with an expansion, and until the volume shows up the direction isn't in the tape.
So on my long — I'm in it, and I'll be straight about what it is. This is an MTF Cloud Bounce (ripster47 EMA cloud) at a stacked level, and it is unconfirmed. My own rule is a Bounce wants Stopping Volume or a hammer to confirm it, and we got neither. The level is holding on an absence of sellers, not a presence of buyers. That's a real distinction and it's why the trade is sized off a defined stop rather than conviction.
No shorts here. I'm looking for longs as long as 400 holds. The confirmation is a 5-12 Curl (ripster47 EMA cloud) — a close back above the cloud on volume above 12.02M. That's what opens 415 and then 420, where the options flow is sitting. A curl on 8M shares isn't a curl, it's drift.
Trigger: reclaim of the 5-12 cloud. Invalidation: 399.33. Below 395.51 and the whole bias flips.
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Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.