Gold is trading within a corrective wave 4 following a completed wave 3 in a 5-wave impulsive structure. The correction appears to be unfolding as a complex WXYXZ, with wave Z now likely in progress.
The reasoning: the current X wave shows a completed double three (two clear corrective legs), which is typical for a connector wave and suggests structural maturity. This reduces the probability of further extension and supports the transition into Z, although further complexity cannot be fully ruled out.
At this stage, I’m tracking two scenarios (marked on the chart):
🟣 Purple scenario:
A short-term push from ~4680 into ~4800, followed by a reversal and continuation lower.
Invalidation: any touch of 4811.
🟠 Orange scenario:
No upside expansion — price continues lower directly from 4680–4700 toward 4300.
Invalidation: a confirmed H4 close above 4713, which would shift focus to the purple scenario.
Until then, I treat this area as potential consolidation before downside continuation.
📉 Context & targets:
This is still a corrective phase within a larger structure.
Primary target: 4300
Extended target: 3800-4100, but first, I want to see how price reacts around 4300. That reaction will define whether further downside expansion toward the extended target is likely.
The key variable now is how the current leg unfolds.
A weak move suggests continuation (orange), while a liquidity sweep into 4800 supports the purple path.
The reasoning: the current X wave shows a completed double three (two clear corrective legs), which is typical for a connector wave and suggests structural maturity. This reduces the probability of further extension and supports the transition into Z, although further complexity cannot be fully ruled out.
At this stage, I’m tracking two scenarios (marked on the chart):
🟣 Purple scenario:
A short-term push from ~4680 into ~4800, followed by a reversal and continuation lower.
Invalidation: any touch of 4811.
🟠 Orange scenario:
No upside expansion — price continues lower directly from 4680–4700 toward 4300.
Invalidation: a confirmed H4 close above 4713, which would shift focus to the purple scenario.
Until then, I treat this area as potential consolidation before downside continuation.
📉 Context & targets:
This is still a corrective phase within a larger structure.
Primary target: 4300
Extended target: 3800-4100, but first, I want to see how price reacts around 4300. That reaction will define whether further downside expansion toward the extended target is likely.
The key variable now is how the current leg unfolds.
A weak move suggests continuation (orange), while a liquidity sweep into 4800 supports the purple path.
Transaction en cours
Gold has followed my 🟠orange scenario shown on the chart. I’m moving my invalidation level from 4713 down to 4643
Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.