War should mean gold. Not this time.
When Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closed and oil surged past $100, markets bought dollars — not gold. Oil means inflation. Inflation means the Fed holds rates. High rates kill a zero-yield asset. The dollar surges. Gold, priced in dollars, gets crushed.
Gold peaked at $5,595 in January. It is now trading near $4,678 — down 16% from its ATH, worst monthly decline since 2013. The Iran war didn’t bypass gold’s safe-haven status. It attacked it through the inflation and dollar channel.
Technicals confirm the bearish thesis. MACD negative, RSI at 47 and falling, price trading below VWAP and SMA20. Sellers are in control.
Key support at $4,400 is the line in the sand. A clean break below opens the door directly to our target. Watch that level closely.
The structural bull case for gold long-term remains intact — but right now, the macro is working against it.
Entry: 4,666
Take profit: 4,290
SL zone: 4,800
Don’t fight the dollar
As always my friends, happy Trading.
Leave a comment below with your thoughts about this analysis.
When Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closed and oil surged past $100, markets bought dollars — not gold. Oil means inflation. Inflation means the Fed holds rates. High rates kill a zero-yield asset. The dollar surges. Gold, priced in dollars, gets crushed.
Gold peaked at $5,595 in January. It is now trading near $4,678 — down 16% from its ATH, worst monthly decline since 2013. The Iran war didn’t bypass gold’s safe-haven status. It attacked it through the inflation and dollar channel.
Technicals confirm the bearish thesis. MACD negative, RSI at 47 and falling, price trading below VWAP and SMA20. Sellers are in control.
Key support at $4,400 is the line in the sand. A clean break below opens the door directly to our target. Watch that level closely.
The structural bull case for gold long-term remains intact — but right now, the macro is working against it.
Entry: 4,666
Take profit: 4,290
SL zone: 4,800
Don’t fight the dollar
As always my friends, happy Trading.
Leave a comment below with your thoughts about this analysis.
Trade fermée: ordre d’arrêt atteint
SL reached - Gold has been moving side ways with it's few one shot volatility movements due to the conflict in the middle east - we are monitoring closely, if we spot an appropriate entry in the precious metal.
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Join my Telegram community for Informative financial market analysis and personalized inputs. Multinational team of experts providing helpful information and analysis in these dynamic times. Let's grow together!
t.me/+qpoidXUFlIliNTc0
t.me/+qpoidXUFlIliNTc0
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.