MercadoLibre, Inc.
Long

$MELI could be done falling (3/5)

170
Conviction: 3/5
could have another leg down to touch lower channel line (2008)


General Thesis
  • could have finished 3 leg down correction
  • Weekly RSI at oversold levels - historically only touches this level once before bouncing


Growth
  • Margins are consistently falling since 2011
  • revenue growth trending up, new ATH


Value
  • P/FCF expensive (negative FCF)
  • P/S below historical average, come down a lot since peak in 2021


Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
  • low debt to asset (<1)
  • good quick ratio (>1)


Potential Risks
  • expensive P/FCF
  • data does not contain last recession
  • another leg down to touch trend support?

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