SOL / TetherUS
Short

SOLUSDT at Weekly Resistance: Breakout or 46% Downside Risk?

226
On the 1W (Weekly) timeframe, SOLUSDT is currently testing a key zone that previously acted as strong support and has now turned into a critical resistance area at 89 – 75 USDT (yellow block).

This zone represents:

A strong demand area in 2022

A major accumulation base before the 2024 rally

A horizontal support that has flipped into resistance (S/R Flip)


Price is currently trading just below this area after a sharp decline from the 2025 swing high.


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Structure & Pattern Formation

From a market structure perspective:

A Lower High has formed after failing to sustain above the 160–200 region

Breakdown from mid-range structure

Retest of weekly supply (89–75 zone)


This suggests:

Distribution / Bearish Rejection Zone

The 89–75 area acts as:

A historical distribution base

A multi-year supply zone

Strong horizontal resistance


If price fails to reclaim this zone, this move could be interpreted as a breakdown retest before the next bearish leg.


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Key Levels

Resistance:

89 – 75 (Critical Weekly Supply Zone)

100 – 110 (Next resistance if breakout occurs)


Support:

62 USDT (≈ -30% downside projection)

47 USDT (≈ -46% downside projection)

40–50 zone (Historical 2023 demand area)


Downside projections shown on the chart:

From 89 → 62 = -30.34%

From 89 → 47 = -46.66%



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Bullish Scenario

Bullish confirmation requires:

1. A strong weekly close above 89


2. Reclaiming the 89–75 zone as support


3. Formation of a Higher Low above 75



If confirmed, upside targets:

110

140

160

Potential revisit of 200+ in the next expansion cycle


A valid bullish continuation would require strong weekly momentum and significant volume.


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Bearish Scenario (Currently More Dominant)

If price fails to break and close above 89 and shows rejection:

Downside targets:

1. 62 USDT (-30%)


2. 47 USDT (-46%)


3. Possible liquidity sweep into the 40 zone if broader market weakens



This would confirm the 89–75 zone as a strong multi-year resistance.

As long as price remains below 89, the structure leans bearish.


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Conclusion

The 89 – 75 zone is the major decision point for SOL.

As long as price trades below this zone, the risk of a correction toward 62 and even 47 remains open.

A breakout and reclaim above this area would shift the bias back to bullish.

Weekly close confirmation is key.

The market is currently at a high-impact decision level.


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