What are the conditions we need for a crash?
In my opinion we need to see these conditions coming together before we can say that we are in a crisis environment.
History showed us that before we had a crisis we 1. first saw the yield curve (US 10 year bond yield - 2 year bond yield) inverting.
2. then we saw the unemployment rate rising.
3. the yield curve steepend again.
Then the SPY had a significant correction or a crash.
So currently one of three conditions are active. The inverted yield curve.
Unemployment rate is slowly rising.
The market is still very strong. Don't step infront of a high speed train.
In my opinion we need to see these conditions coming together before we can say that we are in a crisis environment.
History showed us that before we had a crisis we 1. first saw the yield curve (US 10 year bond yield - 2 year bond yield) inverting.
2. then we saw the unemployment rate rising.
3. the yield curve steepend again.
Then the SPY had a significant correction or a crash.
So currently one of three conditions are active. The inverted yield curve.
Unemployment rate is slowly rising.
The market is still very strong. Don't step infront of a high speed train.
Murat Oers (CFTe)
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Murat Oers (CFTe)
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.