Gold and Silver have a unique relationship with the US10Y.

Gold and Silver have a unique relationship with the US10Y since 2011.

Gold+Silver have always had a cool-off period when the US10Y relative touches this range bottom.

Nov US10Y auctions = gold/silver cool-off period.
The bond market MIGHT disagree with rate cuts again.

Note

Just to talk to the elephant in the room, the 2020 COVID crash is an anomalous event of this range.

However, there is some truth behind the saying that if the trend breaks the range bottom, then Gold will continue to rise much higher, as seen in the 2020 correlation pattern.

Assuming no black swan event, I would expect the 10-year yields to rise, and gold and silver to cool off in the short term.

Note

For clarity, the trend can also continue up even if yields drop. It'll go up if yield decline > gold+silver decline.

Transaction en cours

Playing out nicely, I expect the 10Y to rise now and drag some risk assets up, contrary to rate cuts.

Still early days, this doesn't play out overnight. I expect a Nov month of rising yields and gold to remain in a cool off period.

Note

A double top or LH on Gold here would be poetic of the 2011 pattern.

This is still slowly playing out, but I would keep an eye out for Gold and silver retracement and an increasing 10-year yield in December.

User0511

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User0511

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