Event to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Gross Domestic Product
USDJPY:
USD/JPY remains near multi-year highs, making the balance of risks increasingly uneven. The gap between US and Japanese yields continues to support the US dollar, but a weaker yen raises import costs and attracts attention from the Japanese government. At these levels, even sustained US dollar demand does not rule out a sharp market reaction to official comments or action by the authorities.
The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June, while one Policy Board member today argued for further rate hikes if inflation risks intensify. This does not eliminate the interest rate gap with the United States, but it changes the outlook for the yen. Higher energy prices and a weaker currency may also accelerate the pass-through of costs into consumer inflation.
The US dollar retains a fundamental advantage, yet its further rise against the yen is constrained by intervention risks and the possibility of more active policy normalisation in Japan. For USD/JPY, the pace of yen depreciation matters as much as US Treasury yields. Under the current news flow, a cautious downside scenario for the pair appears justified.
Trading idea: SELL 161.750, SL 162.050, TP 160.850
15:30 EET. USD - Gross Domestic Product
USDJPY:
USD/JPY remains near multi-year highs, making the balance of risks increasingly uneven. The gap between US and Japanese yields continues to support the US dollar, but a weaker yen raises import costs and attracts attention from the Japanese government. At these levels, even sustained US dollar demand does not rule out a sharp market reaction to official comments or action by the authorities.
The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June, while one Policy Board member today argued for further rate hikes if inflation risks intensify. This does not eliminate the interest rate gap with the United States, but it changes the outlook for the yen. Higher energy prices and a weaker currency may also accelerate the pass-through of costs into consumer inflation.
The US dollar retains a fundamental advantage, yet its further rise against the yen is constrained by intervention risks and the possibility of more active policy normalisation in Japan. For USD/JPY, the pace of yen depreciation matters as much as US Treasury yields. Under the current news flow, a cautious downside scenario for the pair appears justified.
Trading idea: SELL 161.750, SL 162.050, TP 160.850
More analytical information and promotions on FreshForex website cutt.ly/LrP6j9qD
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
More analytical information and promotions on FreshForex website cutt.ly/LrP6j9qD
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.