USD Jobs Data Looms – Will 4,660 or 4,720 Break?

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The upcoming Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports are set to be pivotal for the USD. With expectations of a notable slowdown in job growth—projected at 65K compared to the previous 178K—and a slight increase in wages, market volatility is almost guaranteed. This leaves a critical question: will these reports affirm the bullish trend we've seen or shift sentiment in another direction?

Currently, price is testing the crucial 4,660 support level. If this level holds through the data release, we could see a continuation toward the 4,720 resistance zone. This would keep the bullish structure intact, suggesting a further rally in the short term. However, any disappointment in the employment data could disrupt this structure, particularly if the numbers miss expectations. A clear break below 4,660 would invalidate the bullish scenario and could lead to a deeper retracement, with 4,550 as the next major target.

The market is in a pivotal spot. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could drive price upwards, extending the current bullish move, while a weaker report could trigger a sharp pullback and potentially a trend shift. These key levels will likely define the next significant move in the market.

How do you plan to position yourself ahead of the data release? Are you expecting a breakout or a correction?

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