XAUUSD 45M – Rejection at Key Supply Zone, Short Bias Toward 516
🔎 1. Market Structure Overview
Price previously rallied strongly and formed a swing high near 5,235–5,240.
Since then, the market has been consolidating in a range.
Recent move shows a retest of the marked “Key Level” supply zone (≈5,205–5,220).
A lower high appears to be forming inside that zone.
This suggests distribution behavior rather than continuation strength.
🧱 2. Key Zones
🔹 Supply / Resistance:
5,205 – 5,220
Multiple rejections
Labeled “Key Level”
SMT divergence noted (suggesting weakening bullish momentum)
🔹 Intraday Support:
5,155 – 5,165
Marked as TP1 zone
Previous reaction area
🔹 Major Range Support:
5,100
Bottom of current range
If 5,160 breaks cleanly, this becomes the next magnet
📉 3. Bias & Scenario
Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias):
Rejection from 5,205–5,220 holds
Break below minor structure near 5,180
Move toward TP1 at 5,160
Extended target: 5,100 range low
Bullish Invalidation:
Strong close above 5,220
Acceptance above supply zone
Would likely target 5,235+ again
🧠 Technical Reasoning
Lower high inside supply
Weak follow-through after retest
Range environment → edge favors fading extremes
Clear risk-to-reward short setup toward range midpoint / lows
🎯 Trade Idea (Based on Chart Markup)
Entry: Rejection inside 5,205–5,215
Stop: Above 5,225
TP1: 5,160
TP2 (runner): 5,100
Price previously rallied strongly and formed a swing high near 5,235–5,240.
Since then, the market has been consolidating in a range.
Recent move shows a retest of the marked “Key Level” supply zone (≈5,205–5,220).
A lower high appears to be forming inside that zone.
This suggests distribution behavior rather than continuation strength.
🧱 2. Key Zones
🔹 Supply / Resistance:
5,205 – 5,220
Multiple rejections
Labeled “Key Level”
SMT divergence noted (suggesting weakening bullish momentum)
🔹 Intraday Support:
5,155 – 5,165
Marked as TP1 zone
Previous reaction area
🔹 Major Range Support:
5,100
Bottom of current range
If 5,160 breaks cleanly, this becomes the next magnet
📉 3. Bias & Scenario
Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias):
Rejection from 5,205–5,220 holds
Break below minor structure near 5,180
Move toward TP1 at 5,160
Extended target: 5,100 range low
Bullish Invalidation:
Strong close above 5,220
Acceptance above supply zone
Would likely target 5,235+ again
🧠 Technical Reasoning
Lower high inside supply
Weak follow-through after retest
Range environment → edge favors fading extremes
Clear risk-to-reward short setup toward range midpoint / lows
🎯 Trade Idea (Based on Chart Markup)
Entry: Rejection inside 5,205–5,215
Stop: Above 5,225
TP1: 5,160
TP2 (runner): 5,100
Transaction en cours
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Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.