XAUUSD H1: Early Week Rebound, But 4,220 Is the Key Decision Zone
Fundamental Analysis
Gold has ended its three-day losing streak after reaching the lowest area in more than one week. However, the recovery is still not fully convincing because the market remains pressured by a stronger US dollar and the hawkish Fed outlook.
Lower inflation and rate-cut expectations are giving gold some support, but uncertainty around Iran and the Fed’s restrictive stance continue to limit the upside. This means gold may recover in the short term, but the broader trend still needs confirmation before turning bullish again.
Technical Analysis
On the H1 timeframe, gold is trading around 4,177 after scanning the buy-side liquidity near 4,120. Price is now showing a slight rebound, but the main structure still leans bearish after the strong drop from the upper selling zone.
From an SMC view, the 4,140 - 4,165 area is the short-term OB zone. If price holds above this area, gold may continue the rebound at the beginning of the week.
The key resistance above is 4,215 - 4,220. This is the strong liquidity area and also the first major level buyers need to reclaim. If gold breaks and holds above 4,220, the recovery may extend higher.
However, if price falls back below 4,140, sellers may regain control and gold could retest 4,120 or move lower.
Key Price Zones
Current price: 4,177
Short-term OB zone: 4,140 - 4,165
Buy-side liquidity: 4,120
Key resistance: 4,215 - 4,220
Upper selling zone: 4,310 - 4,325
Major OB zone: 4,360 - 4,380
Bearish invalidation: Above 4,220
Bullish invalidation: Below 4,120
Trading Plan
Primary Scenario: Buy Reaction From OB Zone
Entry: 4,140 - 4,165 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,120
Take Profit 1: 4,200
Take Profit 2: 4,215 - 4,220
Take Profit 3: 4,310 - 4,325
Entry Conditions
Price holds above the 4,140 - 4,165 OB zone.
Buyers show clear bullish rejection.
H1 or lower timeframe forms bullish CHOCH.
Price reclaims 4,177 with strength.
Avoid buying if price breaks and holds below 4,120.
Alternative Scenario: Sell From Resistance
Entry: 4,215 - 4,220 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,245
Take Profit 1: 4,165
Take Profit 2: 4,140
Take Profit 3: 4,120
Sell Conditions
Price retests the 4,215 - 4,220 liquidity zone and fails to break higher. If bearish rejection appears from this area, gold may continue the broader bearish structure.
Breakdown Scenario
Entry: Below 4,120 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,145
Take Profit 1: 4,080
Take Profit 2: 4,050
Take Profit 3: 4,020
Overall View
At the beginning of the week, gold may create a short-term rebound from the 4,140 - 4,165 OB zone. However, the main trend has not turned bullish yet.
The most important level this week is 4,215 - 4,220. If buyers reclaim this zone, gold may recover toward 4,310 - 4,325. If price rejects from 4,220 or breaks below 4,120, bearish pressure may return quickly.
For now, the better plan is to wait for confirmation around 4,140 - 4,165 or 4,215 - 4,220 instead of chasing price in the middle.
Do you think gold will reclaim 4,220 this week, or will sellers push price back below 4,120?
Fundamental Analysis
Gold has ended its three-day losing streak after reaching the lowest area in more than one week. However, the recovery is still not fully convincing because the market remains pressured by a stronger US dollar and the hawkish Fed outlook.
Lower inflation and rate-cut expectations are giving gold some support, but uncertainty around Iran and the Fed’s restrictive stance continue to limit the upside. This means gold may recover in the short term, but the broader trend still needs confirmation before turning bullish again.
Technical Analysis
On the H1 timeframe, gold is trading around 4,177 after scanning the buy-side liquidity near 4,120. Price is now showing a slight rebound, but the main structure still leans bearish after the strong drop from the upper selling zone.
From an SMC view, the 4,140 - 4,165 area is the short-term OB zone. If price holds above this area, gold may continue the rebound at the beginning of the week.
The key resistance above is 4,215 - 4,220. This is the strong liquidity area and also the first major level buyers need to reclaim. If gold breaks and holds above 4,220, the recovery may extend higher.
However, if price falls back below 4,140, sellers may regain control and gold could retest 4,120 or move lower.
Key Price Zones
Current price: 4,177
Short-term OB zone: 4,140 - 4,165
Buy-side liquidity: 4,120
Key resistance: 4,215 - 4,220
Upper selling zone: 4,310 - 4,325
Major OB zone: 4,360 - 4,380
Bearish invalidation: Above 4,220
Bullish invalidation: Below 4,120
Trading Plan
Primary Scenario: Buy Reaction From OB Zone
Entry: 4,140 - 4,165 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,120
Take Profit 1: 4,200
Take Profit 2: 4,215 - 4,220
Take Profit 3: 4,310 - 4,325
Entry Conditions
Price holds above the 4,140 - 4,165 OB zone.
Buyers show clear bullish rejection.
H1 or lower timeframe forms bullish CHOCH.
Price reclaims 4,177 with strength.
Avoid buying if price breaks and holds below 4,120.
Alternative Scenario: Sell From Resistance
Entry: 4,215 - 4,220 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,245
Take Profit 1: 4,165
Take Profit 2: 4,140
Take Profit 3: 4,120
Sell Conditions
Price retests the 4,215 - 4,220 liquidity zone and fails to break higher. If bearish rejection appears from this area, gold may continue the broader bearish structure.
Breakdown Scenario
Entry: Below 4,120 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,145
Take Profit 1: 4,080
Take Profit 2: 4,050
Take Profit 3: 4,020
Overall View
At the beginning of the week, gold may create a short-term rebound from the 4,140 - 4,165 OB zone. However, the main trend has not turned bullish yet.
The most important level this week is 4,215 - 4,220. If buyers reclaim this zone, gold may recover toward 4,310 - 4,325. If price rejects from 4,220 or breaks below 4,120, bearish pressure may return quickly.
For now, the better plan is to wait for confirmation around 4,140 - 4,165 or 4,215 - 4,220 instead of chasing price in the middle.
Do you think gold will reclaim 4,220 this week, or will sellers push price back below 4,120?
Transaction en cours
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
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🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+X3kNEpwkIcE1ZDY1
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Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+X3kNEpwkIcE1ZDY1
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+X3kNEpwkIcE1ZDY1
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.