Gold Breaks 4700 — Is This a Trend Reversal or a Trap Before CPI
Gold has broken below the key 4700 level, turning the short-term technical structure bearish. Three main factors are driving the decline: ① Trump’s hawkish remarks pushing oil prices higher → reinforcing high-rate expectations; ② Modi calling for a halt to gold purchases, weighing on demand; and ③ pre-CPI risk-off flows ahead of the data.
On the technical side, after breaking above MA5/MA10 yesterday, price moved higher as expected. Today, however, the market has reversed lower due to news headlines and selling pressure.
On the 30-minute chart, price has broken below MA60, while the MACD histogram remains in negative territory with no signs of contraction — suggesting further downside. Meanwhile, bearish divergences have formed on both the 2H and 4H charts, typically a warning signal of potential declines. On the 2H chart, MA60 support sits near 4687; on the 4H chart, MA60 is near 4635.
Against this backdrop, the first area to watch is 4687–4680. A bounce could occur here, but whether it can reverse the trend depends entirely on the strength of that bounce. If the bounce is weak, price will likely continue lower, potentially testing the 4654–4635 zone.
The daily structure has not yet been fully damaged. However, if price continues to fall below 4640 and fails to recover, the broader outlook would need to be reassessed.
Overall, the main trading bias today is to sell into strength. If price drops to lower levels, a tactical long for a bounce may be considered — with proper risk management. Also, keep a close eye on today’s CPI data release.
On the technical side, after breaking above MA5/MA10 yesterday, price moved higher as expected. Today, however, the market has reversed lower due to news headlines and selling pressure.
On the 30-minute chart, price has broken below MA60, while the MACD histogram remains in negative territory with no signs of contraction — suggesting further downside. Meanwhile, bearish divergences have formed on both the 2H and 4H charts, typically a warning signal of potential declines. On the 2H chart, MA60 support sits near 4687; on the 4H chart, MA60 is near 4635.
Against this backdrop, the first area to watch is 4687–4680. A bounce could occur here, but whether it can reverse the trend depends entirely on the strength of that bounce. If the bounce is weak, price will likely continue lower, potentially testing the 4654–4635 zone.
The daily structure has not yet been fully damaged. However, if price continues to fall below 4640 and fails to recover, the broader outlook would need to be reassessed.
Overall, the main trading bias today is to sell into strength. If price drops to lower levels, a tactical long for a bounce may be considered — with proper risk management. Also, keep a close eye on today’s CPI data release.
Transaction en cours
Today, our forecast has once again been validated. As of now, gold has dropped to a low of around 4639, and our sell-oriented strategy has delivered solid profits. Additionally, after the drop to lower levels, the market also offered a decent bounce. Our overall trading strategy today was well aligned with market action.
On the current technical structure, keep an eye on resistance near 4680 during any rebound.
On the 30-minute chart, the key bull/bear dividing line is near 4712 — which is critical for bears to maintain their advantage. Meanwhile, the 4600–4630 zone represents the key defense area for bulls to stage a counterattack.
Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte
Price has reached the 4700 area, where some resistance is present. However, based on the candlestick formation and indicators, there’s still a chance for further upside. The key is whether price can hold above 4712. If it can, that would suggest bulls still have strength left. If not, we can watch how bulls and bears play out on a pullback to support before deciding the next move.Today’s overall profit is already quite good. If you want to lock it in, closing positions and taking a break until tomorrow is a solid choice. If you prefer to keep trading, staying long is the way to go.
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Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.