XAUUSD: Breakdown Below 3,950 Could Open the Door to 3,780

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Gold remains under bearish pressure on the 4H chart.

Price continues to respect the descending trendline and form lower highs, while the 3,950–3,990 demand zone remains the key area to watch.

Repeated tests of this zone may weaken buyer support, but the bearish scenario still requires confirmation.

🔻 Bearish scenario

I am not looking for an immediate short entry.

The setup becomes valid only after:

a confirmed 4H close below 3,950;
a retest of the broken demand zone;
a bearish reaction after the retest.

🎯 Downside targets

TP1: 3,900
TP2: 3,840
TP3: 3,780

⚠️ Invalidation

The bearish scenario would be invalidated by a confirmed 4H close above the descending trendline.

In that case, buyers could target the 4,180–4,225 supply zone.

For now, the market is approaching a decision point. The next confirmed break could define the following directional move.

What comes first: 3,780 or a breakout above the trendline?

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