Loose expectations are overpriced.
The current market has already regarded a 25 basis point rate cut in October as "a done deal", and even anticipates a further rate cut in December (with a 91% probability). Under such extreme expectations, the previous gains in gold have overestimated the policy benefits. Once the Federal Reserve releases a cautious signal, it will trigger a "buy expectation, sell reality" correction.
Internal divisions conceal hawkish risks.
There are profound differences within the Federal Reserve regarding the subsequent policy path - Milan and others who are dovish support further easing to address employment risks, while Schmidt and others who are cautious emphasize that "the current policy is slightly tight and appropriate", and need to be vigilant about inflation fluctuations. Against the backdrop of government shutdown leading to data "vacuum", Powell is likely to retain policy flexibility and will not explicitly commit to a rate cut in December. This "vague hawkish" statement will directly suppress the gold price.
Today's gold trading strategy
sell：3980-3990
tp:3970-3960
sl:4000
The current market has already regarded a 25 basis point rate cut in October as "a done deal", and even anticipates a further rate cut in December (with a 91% probability). Under such extreme expectations, the previous gains in gold have overestimated the policy benefits. Once the Federal Reserve releases a cautious signal, it will trigger a "buy expectation, sell reality" correction.
Internal divisions conceal hawkish risks.
There are profound differences within the Federal Reserve regarding the subsequent policy path - Milan and others who are dovish support further easing to address employment risks, while Schmidt and others who are cautious emphasize that "the current policy is slightly tight and appropriate", and need to be vigilant about inflation fluctuations. Against the backdrop of government shutdown leading to data "vacuum", Powell is likely to retain policy flexibility and will not explicitly commit to a rate cut in December. This "vague hawkish" statement will directly suppress the gold price.
Today's gold trading strategy
sell：3980-3990
tp:3970-3960
sl:4000
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Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.