Gold Approaching Major Decision Zone—Rally or Another Bull Trap?
Gold successfully achieved the Inverse Cup & Handle target shared in my previous analysis and delivered a strong bounce from the 3900 support zone.
Since then, price has turned bullish and is forming a beautiful rounding bottom pattern.
The key question now is:
Is this the beginning of a new uptrend, or just another corrective rally within the broader downtrend?
🐻 Bearish Factors
📉 Descending Trendline Resistance
Price has respected this trendline multiple times since the decline from 4770.
Every rally has been rejected so far.
🛑 Strong Horizontal Resistance
4220 previously triggered the selloff back to 3900.
Expect sellers to defend this level again.
🌀 Fibonacci Golden Pocket
The 4170–4215 zone (61.8% retracement) aligns perfectly with other resistance levels, creating a strong confluence area.
⚠️ Bearish Divergence
Momentum is weakening despite higher prices, increasing the probability of a pullback.
🎯 Bearish Scenario
➡️ As long as Gold fails to break above the descending trendline and successfully retest it as support, I continue to view this rally as corrective.
🎯 Target 1: 4090 (Intermediate Support)
🎯 Target 2: 3900 (Major Support Zone)
✅ Bullish Invalidation
🟢 A strong daily close above 4220, followed by a successful retest, would invalidate this bearish thesis and significantly increase the probability of a larger bullish reversal. And for bullish reversal, it has to cross one last barrier of 4380 decisively. But, crossing and sustaining above 4220 will increase that probability.
👀 Watch the 4170–4220 resistance cluster closely. The reaction here is likely to determine Gold's next major move.
Since then, price has turned bullish and is forming a beautiful rounding bottom pattern.
The key question now is:
Is this the beginning of a new uptrend, or just another corrective rally within the broader downtrend?
🐻 Bearish Factors
📉 Descending Trendline Resistance
Price has respected this trendline multiple times since the decline from 4770.
Every rally has been rejected so far.
🛑 Strong Horizontal Resistance
4220 previously triggered the selloff back to 3900.
Expect sellers to defend this level again.
🌀 Fibonacci Golden Pocket
The 4170–4215 zone (61.8% retracement) aligns perfectly with other resistance levels, creating a strong confluence area.
⚠️ Bearish Divergence
Momentum is weakening despite higher prices, increasing the probability of a pullback.
🎯 Bearish Scenario
➡️ As long as Gold fails to break above the descending trendline and successfully retest it as support, I continue to view this rally as corrective.
🎯 Target 1: 4090 (Intermediate Support)
🎯 Target 2: 3900 (Major Support Zone)
✅ Bullish Invalidation
🟢 A strong daily close above 4220, followed by a successful retest, would invalidate this bearish thesis and significantly increase the probability of a larger bullish reversal. And for bullish reversal, it has to cross one last barrier of 4380 decisively. But, crossing and sustaining above 4220 will increase that probability.
👀 Watch the 4170–4220 resistance cluster closely. The reaction here is likely to determine Gold's next major move.
Transaction en cours
As expected, first 4H candle isn't supporting bulls.Note
Gold hits first support marked near 4094. (4092)Note
Continuous rejection by the trendline
📊 Charts → 🏗️ Structure → 🎯 Probability =📖 Chart Story
⏳ Patience → 🚀Success
🎯 If this setup makes sense to you, show it some support with a Boost.
⏳ Patience → 🚀Success
🎯 If this setup makes sense to you, show it some support with a Boost.
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
📊 Charts → 🏗️ Structure → 🎯 Probability =📖 Chart Story
⏳ Patience → 🚀Success
🎯 If this setup makes sense to you, show it some support with a Boost.
⏳ Patience → 🚀Success
🎯 If this setup makes sense to you, show it some support with a Boost.
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.