XRP Whales Dominate Exchange Outflows as Bitcoin Shorts Rise on Hyperliquid

The contrasting flows highlight a market where some large investors are moving XRP away from exchanges even as leveraged traders position for further weakness in Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant data shows whales accounted for about 77% of XRP outflows from centralized exchanges on a seven-day average, compared with 22.8% for retail participants. Binance showed an even stronger concentration among large holders, with whale activity accounting for around 81% of outflows versus 18.7% for retail. The figures point to a significant shift in the composition of XRP exchange withdrawals.

XRP Whale Outflows Gain Momentum

The exchange data also shows declining XRP reserves on major trading platforms. Binance’s XRP reserves fell from about 2.704 billion to 2.631 billion between September 26 and October 4, while Upbit’s reserves declined from roughly 6.446 billion to 6.415 billion between September 11 and October 5. Together, the reported reductions amounted to approximately 104.7 million XRP.

CryptoQuant data shows whales dominate CEX outflows, accounting for 77% overall and 81% on Binance, while retail contributes less than 23%, alongside declining Binance and Upbit reserves. Source: @Xaif_Crypto via X

CryptoQuant separately reported that the 30-day sum of XRP whale outflows from Binance reached about 1.38 billion XRP, its highest level in seven months. The data indicates that large wallets have been moving substantial amounts away from the exchange, although blockchain transfers alone cannot establish whether the tokens are being placed into long-term storage, transferred between entities, or prepared for other uses.

The distinction is important because exchange outflows are not automatically proof of accumulation. CryptoQuant's XRP flow methodology treats outflows as transfers from exchange wallets to external addresses, while the destination and subsequent activity determine what those movements ultimately represent.

At the same time, XRP has also seen significant exchange inflows. CryptoQuant recently estimated that roughly 1.6 billion XRP entered Binance over 30 days, the highest such reading since March. However, the firm cautioned that inflows do not necessarily represent completed sales and should be assessed alongside reserves, outflows, and spot-market activity.

Grayscale XRP ETF Adds a New Variable

The whale activity comes alongside an important development involving Grayscale's XRP ETF, which trades under the ticker GXRP. An October 5 filing shows that Grayscale amended its participant agreements to allow in-kind creations and redemptions in addition to the existing cash-based process. The filing also documents an agreement involving Anchorage Digital Bank as an additional custodian.

Grayscale’s XRP ETF ($GXRP) added Anchorage Digital Bank as a secondary custodian and enabled in-kind XRP creations and redemptions. Source: @Xaif_Crypto via X

The in-kind structure allows authorized participants to create or redeem ETF shares using the underlying XRP rather than relying exclusively on cash transactions. That gives the fund structure a more direct connection to the underlying asset and provides another mechanism through which XRP can move between market participants and the ETF's custody infrastructure.

The timing has drawn attention because the rise in whale-dominated outflows occurred around the same period as the ETF's operational changes. However, the available data does not establish that XRP withdrawals were caused by the ETF upgrade or that the withdrawn tokens are being accumulated specifically because of it.

For now, the two developments are best viewed as concurrent market signals rather than evidence of a direct causal relationship.

Hyperliquid Traders Take 40x Bitcoin Shorts

While large XRP holders were moving tokens away from exchanges, Bitcoin derivatives activity provided a sharply different picture.

Lookonchain reported that four newly created wallets deposited $1 million in USDC into Hyperliquid and subsequently opened 40x leveraged short positions covering 148.49 BTC, worth approximately $12.5 million at the time. The positions were opened shortly before Bitcoin dropped below $84,000.

Four newly created wallets deposited $1 million USDC into Hyperliquid and opened 40x leveraged BTC shorts worth about $12.5 million shortly before Bitcoin fell below $84,000. Source: @lookonchain via X

The on-chain records made the sequence visible. The wallets funded their Hyperliquid accounts before establishing the short positions, with reported entries around the $85,000-$85,500 area. Bitcoin subsequently fell through $84,000, making the timing of the trades particularly notable.

Lookonchain asked whether the wallets were "insiders" in its report, but the transaction data alone does not establish that the traders had advance knowledge of the decline. The available records show when the wallets were funded and when the positions were opened, not why the traders entered those trades or whether they had access to non-public information.

The distinction matters because leveraged derivatives positions can reflect hedging, directional speculation, or broader portfolio strategies. The four wallets' activity therefore provides evidence of an unusually well-timed trade, but not proof of coordinated market manipulation or foreknowledge.

Bitcoin Price Faces Short-Term Pressure

Bitcoin was trading near $83,446 in the latest technical snapshot, down about 2.5%. The broader indicator mix remained neutral, with short-term momentum showing weakness while longer-duration moving averages continued to provide support.

The technical structure places Bitcoin below several short-term averages around the $83,500-$85,500 range. At the same time, the 30-day and longer moving averages remain below the current market price, indicating that the recent decline has not yet fully broken the broader upward structure.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

The classic pivot level near $81,950 is an important reference point if weakness continues. A sustained move below that area could bring deeper support into focus, while a recovery through the mid-$84,000s and toward the $86,000-$87,000 region would indicate that buyers are regaining control.

The derivatives market has also amplified the latest move. Cointelegraph reported that more than $500 million in crypto long positions were liquidated during the decline, illustrating how forced selling can intensify a relatively fast Bitcoin pullback.

XRP Holds Above Key Long-Term Support

XRP, meanwhile, was trading around $1.44 after retreating from the $1.50-$1.52 area. Despite the short-term pullback, its daily technical structure remained comparatively constructive.

The token was still above its 50-day moving average near $1.42-$1.43 and well above its 200-day moving average near $1.28. The daily RSI was around 48, indicating neutral momentum rather than an overbought or oversold condition.

XRP price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

The $1.40-$1.41 region remains an important support area because it combines several technical references, including the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages and a Fibonacci retracement level. A sustained break below that zone could expose XRP to the $1.33 area and potentially the $1.28 200-day moving average.

On the upside, resistance is concentrated around $1.50-$1.52. A sustained daily close above that region would strengthen the recovery structure and bring higher levels near $1.55 and $1.59 into focus.

The divergence between XRP's longer-term trend and its shorter-term momentum is also notable. The daily structure remains constructive, while the four-hour chart shows greater weakness. This leaves XRP in a corrective phase rather than providing clear evidence of a broader trend reversal.

Two Different Signals From Large Crypto Traders

The latest on-chain activity presents two distinct pictures. XRP's exchange data shows large holders accounting for most withdrawals, while declining Binance and Upbit reserves indicate that some XRP has moved away from immediately accessible exchange liquidity. That pattern can be consistent with accumulation, but it does not establish the ultimate purpose of the transfers.

Bitcoin derivatives activity tells a different story. Four newly created Hyperliquid wallets established sizeable leveraged short positions shortly before BTC fell below $84,000. The timing is notable, but the available blockchain records do not prove that the traders anticipated the decline or caused it.

Together, the developments underscore the importance of separating observable on-chain behavior from conclusions about trader intent. XRP whale outflows, ETF infrastructure changes, and Bitcoin short positioning are all measurable developments, but their longer-term market impact will depend on whether the trends persist and how prices respond.

For XRP, sustained exchange outflows alongside stable or rising prices would provide stronger evidence that reduced exchange supply is becoming an important market factor. For Bitcoin, the reaction around the $81,950 pivot and the $86,000-$87,000 resistance zone may offer clearer evidence of whether the latest decline represents a deeper correction or a temporary bout of leveraged selling.