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Volatility-adjusted real YoY returns (%)

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This indicator shows volatility-adjusted YoY real return.

It uses year-over-year log returns because YoY comparisons help eliminate seasonality. Other timeframes are generally less meaningful for this purpose, as they can be distorted by seasonal patterns, short-term noise, or incomplete economic cycles.

The hurdle rate is the maximum of inflation or the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield. The asset’s YoY return is reduced by this hurdle rate, then divided by annualized volatility.

The result is a risk-adjusted macro return score:

Positive values indicate YoY return is clearing the inflation/rate hurdle after volatility adjustment.

Negative values indicate YoY return is failing to clear that hurdle after volatility adjustment.

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