OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Projection Forecaster - Confluences
Projection Forecaster - Confluences
What it is
Projection Forecaster reads five independent market factors, combines them into a single
directional **bias score** from −100 to +100, and then draws a forward-looking
**projection cone** on the chart. The cone shows the *direction* price is currently
leaning and — through its width — *how much confidence* that lean deserves. When the
market is ranging rather than trending, the tool switches to a distinct **orange
"sideways" state** instead of forcing a green/red read.
This is a **probabilistic context tool, not a prediction of the future and not a
buy/sell signal generator.** The cone is a visualization of present-bar conditions
projected forward under a simple drift-and-uncertainty model; it does not claim to know
where price will actually go.
---
### The idea
Most "direction" tools collapse everything into one oscillator, which double-counts the
same edge (e.g. three momentum inputs that all say the same thing). Projection Forecaster
instead deliberately samples **five different dimensions** of the market — trend, momentum,
higher-timeframe context, order flow, and mean-reversion pressure — so each factor adds
*new* information. Those are blended with user weights into one bias, and the bias is then
expressed as a geometric cone so the trader can read direction and conviction at a glance.
---
### The five factors and how each is calculated
Each factor is normalized to roughly the −1 … +1 range (−1 = fully bearish, +1 = fully
bullish) before weighting.
**1. Trend Slope** — the underlying tide.
Uses the EMA stack (EMA-20, EMA-50, EMA-200):
`+0.5 if EMA20 > EMA50 else −0.5`, plus `+0.5 if EMA50 > EMA200 else −0.5`.
Range −1 (fully stacked down) to +1 (fully stacked up).
**2. Momentum** — the push behind the move.
Combines RSI position and the MACD histogram:
`clamp( 0.7 × (RSI−50)/25 + 0.3 × (MACD_histogram / ATR) )`.
RSI is centered on 50; the MACD histogram is normalized by ATR so it scales across
instruments. `clamp` limits the result to −1 … +1.
**3. Higher-Timeframe Bias** — bigger-picture agreement.
Pulls the close and a 50-period EMA from a higher timeframe (4× the current intraday
timeframe; same timeframe on non-intraday charts) using `request.security` with
**lookahead disabled** to avoid future leak. Returns +1 if HTF close > HTF EMA, else −1.
**4. Volume Flow** — who is in control.
Builds a signed-volume series: `sign(close−open) × volume`, smoothed with a 14-period EMA,
then divided by 20-period average volume and clamped to −1 … +1. Positive = net buying
pressure, negative = net selling pressure.
**5. Mean-Reversion** — a deliberate contrarian counterweight.
Measures how stretched price is from the rolling VWAP:
`clamp( −(close − VWAP) / (2 × ATR) )`.
Note the negative sign: when price is far **above** VWAP this factor leans **down**
(over-extension pressure), and vice-versa. It is weighted lightly so it tempers, rather
than overrides, the trend.
**Volatility regime** (`ATR / SMA(ATR, 20)`) is **not** a directional vote. It is used only
to widen the cone when volatility is expanding.
---
### How the bias is combined
```
bias = ( wTrend·Trend + wMom·Momentum + wHTF·HTF + wFlow·Flow + wMR·MeanRev )
/ (wTrend + wMom + wHTF + wFlow + wMR)
```
Weights are user inputs (defaults 0.30 / 0.25 / 0.20 / 0.15 / 0.10) and are
**auto-normalized**, so any combination you choose still produces a bias in −1 … +1.
The result is smoothed with a short EMA (default length 3) to stop bar-to-bar flicker.
`bias × 100` is shown on the dashboard; `50 + bias × 50` is shown as an approximate
"% up" reading purely to make the lean human-readable.
---
### How the projection cone is drawn
The cone is anchored at the current bar's price and extends `Projection Length` bars into
the future (a fixed, user-set horizon — it is a drawn projection, not a forecast of actual
candles).
- **Center / drift line:** `driftPerBar = bias × DriftStrength × ATR`, accumulated over the
projection length. Stronger, more one-sided bias → steeper center line. In a sideways
market the drift is cut to 25 % so the line reads flat.
- **Cone width (uncertainty):** `halfWidth = ATR × WidthStrength × bars × (0.35 + (1 − |bias|) × volRegime)`.
The key idea: width grows when conviction is **low** (`1 − |bias|`) and when volatility is
expanding. **A confident read produces a narrow cone; an unsure read produces a wide one.**
So the cone's *slope* encodes direction and the cone's *spread* encodes how much to trust it.
---
### The sideways (orange) state
A trending model is misleading in a range, so the script detects ranging conditions two ways:
- **Weak bias:** `|bias|` inside the user "Neutral Dead-Zone", or
- **Low ADX:** standard 14-period ADX below the user threshold (default 20).
When either is true, the cone, center line, read-out, dashboard and an optional background
region all turn **orange** and the label reads "SIDEWAYS — ranging / no clear lean." This
keeps the tool honest in chop instead of painting a false green/red bias.
---
### What it draws on the chart
- The forward projection cone (toggle) and center drift line (toggle).
- A floating plain-English read at the cone tip, e.g. "▲ Leaning UP • Strong conviction (≈72% up)".
- A compact dashboard showing each of the five factors as a mini bar, plus overall bias,
conviction and direction.
- An optional background tint for the sideways state.
---
### Alerts
Built-in alerts (both as classic `alertcondition` dropdown entries and rich `alert()`
messages that include symbol, timeframe, direction, conviction and the % read):
bias flips **UP** / **DOWN**, conviction turns **Strong+**, and market turns **Sideways**.
All alert logic evaluates on bar close (`alert.freq_once_per_bar_close`) to avoid intrabar
flicker.
---
### How to use it
- Treat the cone as **directional context**, not an entry trigger. Use it to bias your own
setups: take longs more seriously when the cone is green and narrow; stand aside or expect
rotation when it is orange.
- A **narrow** cone = factors agree (higher conviction). A **wide** cone = mixed signals or
high volatility (lower conviction).
- Combine it with your existing levels, structure or strategy — it is designed to *inform* a
decision, not make it for you.
- Tune the factor weights and the ADX threshold to suit the instrument and timeframe you trade.
---
### Repainting & calculation notes
- All factors are standard closed-bar calculations; higher-timeframe data uses
`lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_off`, so no future information is used.
- The projection cone is drawn only on the most recent bar and is **recomputed live** as the
current bar develops — this is expected behaviour for a forward projection and does **not**
repaint historical bars (no past cones are stored or restated).
- Alerts fire on bar close.
---
### Originality
This script is my own original work. It is not a copy of an existing indicator. The
component techniques it uses (EMA stack, RSI, MACD, VWAP, ADX, ATR) are standard public
concepts; the original contribution is the **specific multi-factor blending into a single
normalized bias and its expression as a drift-and-uncertainty projection cone with an
explicit ADX-based sideways state.** No code from other authors is included.
---
### Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for **educational and informational purposes only**. It does not
constitute financial advice and makes **no guarantee of future results**. Markets involve
risk; past behaviour does not predict future outcomes. Always do your own analysis and manage
your risk. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions.
What it is
Projection Forecaster reads five independent market factors, combines them into a single
directional **bias score** from −100 to +100, and then draws a forward-looking
**projection cone** on the chart. The cone shows the *direction* price is currently
leaning and — through its width — *how much confidence* that lean deserves. When the
market is ranging rather than trending, the tool switches to a distinct **orange
"sideways" state** instead of forcing a green/red read.
This is a **probabilistic context tool, not a prediction of the future and not a
buy/sell signal generator.** The cone is a visualization of present-bar conditions
projected forward under a simple drift-and-uncertainty model; it does not claim to know
where price will actually go.
---
### The idea
Most "direction" tools collapse everything into one oscillator, which double-counts the
same edge (e.g. three momentum inputs that all say the same thing). Projection Forecaster
instead deliberately samples **five different dimensions** of the market — trend, momentum,
higher-timeframe context, order flow, and mean-reversion pressure — so each factor adds
*new* information. Those are blended with user weights into one bias, and the bias is then
expressed as a geometric cone so the trader can read direction and conviction at a glance.
---
### The five factors and how each is calculated
Each factor is normalized to roughly the −1 … +1 range (−1 = fully bearish, +1 = fully
bullish) before weighting.
**1. Trend Slope** — the underlying tide.
Uses the EMA stack (EMA-20, EMA-50, EMA-200):
`+0.5 if EMA20 > EMA50 else −0.5`, plus `+0.5 if EMA50 > EMA200 else −0.5`.
Range −1 (fully stacked down) to +1 (fully stacked up).
**2. Momentum** — the push behind the move.
Combines RSI position and the MACD histogram:
`clamp( 0.7 × (RSI−50)/25 + 0.3 × (MACD_histogram / ATR) )`.
RSI is centered on 50; the MACD histogram is normalized by ATR so it scales across
instruments. `clamp` limits the result to −1 … +1.
**3. Higher-Timeframe Bias** — bigger-picture agreement.
Pulls the close and a 50-period EMA from a higher timeframe (4× the current intraday
timeframe; same timeframe on non-intraday charts) using `request.security` with
**lookahead disabled** to avoid future leak. Returns +1 if HTF close > HTF EMA, else −1.
**4. Volume Flow** — who is in control.
Builds a signed-volume series: `sign(close−open) × volume`, smoothed with a 14-period EMA,
then divided by 20-period average volume and clamped to −1 … +1. Positive = net buying
pressure, negative = net selling pressure.
**5. Mean-Reversion** — a deliberate contrarian counterweight.
Measures how stretched price is from the rolling VWAP:
`clamp( −(close − VWAP) / (2 × ATR) )`.
Note the negative sign: when price is far **above** VWAP this factor leans **down**
(over-extension pressure), and vice-versa. It is weighted lightly so it tempers, rather
than overrides, the trend.
**Volatility regime** (`ATR / SMA(ATR, 20)`) is **not** a directional vote. It is used only
to widen the cone when volatility is expanding.
---
### How the bias is combined
```
bias = ( wTrend·Trend + wMom·Momentum + wHTF·HTF + wFlow·Flow + wMR·MeanRev )
/ (wTrend + wMom + wHTF + wFlow + wMR)
```
Weights are user inputs (defaults 0.30 / 0.25 / 0.20 / 0.15 / 0.10) and are
**auto-normalized**, so any combination you choose still produces a bias in −1 … +1.
The result is smoothed with a short EMA (default length 3) to stop bar-to-bar flicker.
`bias × 100` is shown on the dashboard; `50 + bias × 50` is shown as an approximate
"% up" reading purely to make the lean human-readable.
---
### How the projection cone is drawn
The cone is anchored at the current bar's price and extends `Projection Length` bars into
the future (a fixed, user-set horizon — it is a drawn projection, not a forecast of actual
candles).
- **Center / drift line:** `driftPerBar = bias × DriftStrength × ATR`, accumulated over the
projection length. Stronger, more one-sided bias → steeper center line. In a sideways
market the drift is cut to 25 % so the line reads flat.
- **Cone width (uncertainty):** `halfWidth = ATR × WidthStrength × bars × (0.35 + (1 − |bias|) × volRegime)`.
The key idea: width grows when conviction is **low** (`1 − |bias|`) and when volatility is
expanding. **A confident read produces a narrow cone; an unsure read produces a wide one.**
So the cone's *slope* encodes direction and the cone's *spread* encodes how much to trust it.
---
### The sideways (orange) state
A trending model is misleading in a range, so the script detects ranging conditions two ways:
- **Weak bias:** `|bias|` inside the user "Neutral Dead-Zone", or
- **Low ADX:** standard 14-period ADX below the user threshold (default 20).
When either is true, the cone, center line, read-out, dashboard and an optional background
region all turn **orange** and the label reads "SIDEWAYS — ranging / no clear lean." This
keeps the tool honest in chop instead of painting a false green/red bias.
---
### What it draws on the chart
- The forward projection cone (toggle) and center drift line (toggle).
- A floating plain-English read at the cone tip, e.g. "▲ Leaning UP • Strong conviction (≈72% up)".
- A compact dashboard showing each of the five factors as a mini bar, plus overall bias,
conviction and direction.
- An optional background tint for the sideways state.
---
### Alerts
Built-in alerts (both as classic `alertcondition` dropdown entries and rich `alert()`
messages that include symbol, timeframe, direction, conviction and the % read):
bias flips **UP** / **DOWN**, conviction turns **Strong+**, and market turns **Sideways**.
All alert logic evaluates on bar close (`alert.freq_once_per_bar_close`) to avoid intrabar
flicker.
---
### How to use it
- Treat the cone as **directional context**, not an entry trigger. Use it to bias your own
setups: take longs more seriously when the cone is green and narrow; stand aside or expect
rotation when it is orange.
- A **narrow** cone = factors agree (higher conviction). A **wide** cone = mixed signals or
high volatility (lower conviction).
- Combine it with your existing levels, structure or strategy — it is designed to *inform* a
decision, not make it for you.
- Tune the factor weights and the ADX threshold to suit the instrument and timeframe you trade.
---
### Repainting & calculation notes
- All factors are standard closed-bar calculations; higher-timeframe data uses
`lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_off`, so no future information is used.
- The projection cone is drawn only on the most recent bar and is **recomputed live** as the
current bar develops — this is expected behaviour for a forward projection and does **not**
repaint historical bars (no past cones are stored or restated).
- Alerts fire on bar close.
---
### Originality
This script is my own original work. It is not a copy of an existing indicator. The
component techniques it uses (EMA stack, RSI, MACD, VWAP, ADX, ATR) are standard public
concepts; the original contribution is the **specific multi-factor blending into a single
normalized bias and its expression as a drift-and-uncertainty projection cone with an
explicit ADX-based sideways state.** No code from other authors is included.
---
### Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for **educational and informational purposes only**. It does not
constitute financial advice and makes **no guarantee of future results**. Markets involve
risk; past behaviour does not predict future outcomes. Always do your own analysis and manage
your risk. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions.
Script open-source
Dans l'esprit TradingView, le créateur de ce script l'a rendu open source afin que les traders puissent examiner et vérifier ses fonctionnalités. Bravo à l'auteur! Bien que vous puissiez l'utiliser gratuitement, n'oubliez pas que la republication du code est soumise à nos Règles.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Script open-source
Dans l'esprit TradingView, le créateur de ce script l'a rendu open source afin que les traders puissent examiner et vérifier ses fonctionnalités. Bravo à l'auteur! Bien que vous puissiez l'utiliser gratuitement, n'oubliez pas que la republication du code est soumise à nos Règles.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.