OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
AetherEdge - Mean-Reversion Bands
🖊️ Overview
Ordinary bands flag the stretch but say nothing about what happens next. AE-MRB learns the probability that price reverts to the mean at a band touch and only fades when the odds support it. A UCB-style threshold adapts per trend regime — aggressive in chop, cautious in a trend — with the mean (band center) as the target.
🔶 Key Features
Learned reversion probability — online P(revert) at each band touch (not every touch reverts)
Triple-barrier training — learns from the real outcome: revert / extend (trend) / timeout
Regime-adaptive threshold — UCB tunes the firing probability per ranging/normal/trending regime
Fade signals — long at the lower band, short at the upper band, targeting the mean
σ stretch readout and regime-colored bands
Alerts on high-probability touches; bar-close training and signals — no repaint
🧠 Technical Architecture
Bands: basis (EMA/SMA) ± kBand·standard deviation; stretch = (close − basis)/σ (z-score).
ML (online logistic): at a band touch (a fresh |stretch| ≥ threshold cross), seven fade-oriented features (stretch, trend strength, RSI extremity, band-width regime, volume, mean slope, exhaustion) predict P(reverts to the mean within N bars). Labels are triple-barrier — revert (returns to mean) = 1, extend (stretches further = trend/breakout) = 0, timeout judged by how far it pulled back. Resolved over an array<Setup> with SL priority.
RL (UCB-style adaptive threshold): per trend regime (trend-strength terciles), a UCB tunes the firing probability threshold; reward is tied to the same reversion outcome (one learning loop). Stronger trends demand higher conviction.
Honest scope: a linear classifier + a bandit over standard features. Not deep learning, not a guarantee.
⚙️ Recommended Settings & Tuning Guide (crypto 15m–4H)
Key parameters: basis length, band width σ, touch threshold σ, barrier horizon N, revert/extend levels, learning rate, UCB exploration, min reversion probability.
Touch threshold σ ≈ 1.5–2.0 (lower = more frequent, higher = more selective)
N is the max bars to wait for reversion; 8–15 for 15m–1H
Revert level / extend distance define what counts as success vs failure
Min reversion probability is a floor that suppresses weak-market misfires
Best on range-prone symbols/sessions; in strong trends the UCB automatically throttles firing
💡 How to Use in Practice
Use the fade triangles for counter-trend entries and the mean as the take-profit target
Watch P(revert) vs threshold and take only setups that clear it
When the regime reads TRENDING, fade lightly (pair with a trend tool)
Use the realized revert rate to gauge how reversion-friendly the market is now
Combine with AE-VOL (range envelope) or AE-CORR (drivers) to layer reversion × level
⚠️ Important Notes
Needs a learning period (warmup); learning resets on parameter/timeframe change
Mean reversion fails in strong trends (extend = loss; manage via threshold and regime)
The target mean moves (its level shifts before price reaches it)
Probability, not a guarantee — always do your own due diligence and use risk management
🚨 Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. No method guarantees future profits; past performance does not indicate future results, and trading carries the risk of loss. All decisions are your own — use proper validation and disciplined risk management.
Ordinary bands flag the stretch but say nothing about what happens next. AE-MRB learns the probability that price reverts to the mean at a band touch and only fades when the odds support it. A UCB-style threshold adapts per trend regime — aggressive in chop, cautious in a trend — with the mean (band center) as the target.
🔶 Key Features
Learned reversion probability — online P(revert) at each band touch (not every touch reverts)
Triple-barrier training — learns from the real outcome: revert / extend (trend) / timeout
Regime-adaptive threshold — UCB tunes the firing probability per ranging/normal/trending regime
Fade signals — long at the lower band, short at the upper band, targeting the mean
σ stretch readout and regime-colored bands
Alerts on high-probability touches; bar-close training and signals — no repaint
🧠 Technical Architecture
Bands: basis (EMA/SMA) ± kBand·standard deviation; stretch = (close − basis)/σ (z-score).
ML (online logistic): at a band touch (a fresh |stretch| ≥ threshold cross), seven fade-oriented features (stretch, trend strength, RSI extremity, band-width regime, volume, mean slope, exhaustion) predict P(reverts to the mean within N bars). Labels are triple-barrier — revert (returns to mean) = 1, extend (stretches further = trend/breakout) = 0, timeout judged by how far it pulled back. Resolved over an array<Setup> with SL priority.
RL (UCB-style adaptive threshold): per trend regime (trend-strength terciles), a UCB tunes the firing probability threshold; reward is tied to the same reversion outcome (one learning loop). Stronger trends demand higher conviction.
Honest scope: a linear classifier + a bandit over standard features. Not deep learning, not a guarantee.
⚙️ Recommended Settings & Tuning Guide (crypto 15m–4H)
Key parameters: basis length, band width σ, touch threshold σ, barrier horizon N, revert/extend levels, learning rate, UCB exploration, min reversion probability.
Touch threshold σ ≈ 1.5–2.0 (lower = more frequent, higher = more selective)
N is the max bars to wait for reversion; 8–15 for 15m–1H
Revert level / extend distance define what counts as success vs failure
Min reversion probability is a floor that suppresses weak-market misfires
Best on range-prone symbols/sessions; in strong trends the UCB automatically throttles firing
💡 How to Use in Practice
Use the fade triangles for counter-trend entries and the mean as the take-profit target
Watch P(revert) vs threshold and take only setups that clear it
When the regime reads TRENDING, fade lightly (pair with a trend tool)
Use the realized revert rate to gauge how reversion-friendly the market is now
Combine with AE-VOL (range envelope) or AE-CORR (drivers) to layer reversion × level
⚠️ Important Notes
Needs a learning period (warmup); learning resets on parameter/timeframe change
Mean reversion fails in strong trends (extend = loss; manage via threshold and regime)
The target mean moves (its level shifts before price reaches it)
Probability, not a guarantee — always do your own due diligence and use risk management
🚨 Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. No method guarantees future profits; past performance does not indicate future results, and trading carries the risk of loss. All decisions are your own — use proper validation and disciplined risk management.
Script open-source
Dans l'esprit TradingView, le créateur de ce script l'a rendu open source afin que les traders puissent examiner et vérifier ses fonctionnalités. Bravo à l'auteur! Bien que vous puissiez l'utiliser gratuitement, n'oubliez pas que la republication du code est soumise à nos Règles.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Script open-source
Dans l'esprit TradingView, le créateur de ce script l'a rendu open source afin que les traders puissent examiner et vérifier ses fonctionnalités. Bravo à l'auteur! Bien que vous puissiez l'utiliser gratuitement, n'oubliez pas que la republication du code est soumise à nos Règles.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.