OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
VIGAX/VVIAX 10Y & 15Y Detrended Z-Scores
This indicator measures how stretched U.S. large-cap growth is versus U.S. large-cap value by analyzing the VIGAX/VVIAX ratio. Because VIGAX represents large-cap growth and VVIAX represents large-cap value, a rising ratio means growth is outperforming value, while a falling ratio means value is outperforming growth.
The script calculates the ratio, converts it to log scale, and then fits rolling 10-year and 15-year regression trends. It plots the residual z-score of the ratio relative to those trends. In plain terms, the indicator shows whether growth is unusually strong or weak versus value after accounting for the long-term upward trend in growth/value leadership.
A z-score near 0 means the ratio is near trend. A positive z-score means growth is above trend versus value. A negative z-score means growth is below trend versus value. The script plots reference bands at ±1.5, ±2.0, and ±2.5 standard deviations.
The signal logic is contrarian and re-entry based. A VALUE signal occurs when the selected z-score has moved above the chosen positive threshold and then crosses back below it. This means growth became statistically stretched and then started to fail. A GROWTH signal occurs when the selected z-score has moved below the chosen negative threshold and then crosses back above it. This means growth became statistically washed out and then started to recover.
Suggested use:
Use the 15-year z-score for the cleaner, long-cycle signal. Use the 10-year z-score for a more responsive, current-regime read. The ±2.5 threshold is the highest-conviction signal and will fire rarely. The ±2.0 and ±1.5 levels are better treated as early-warning zones rather than automatic trade signals.
The indicator does not read manual TradingView trendlines. It creates its own statistical trend using rolling regression. The strongest setup occurs when the z-score signal aligns with the visual long-term channel on the VIGAX/VVIAX chart.
The indicator is not designed to work with charts other than the VIGAX/VVIAX chart.
Code by ChatGPT 5.5 Thinking
Prompts by Jeremy L. A. Hill Edwards
The script calculates the ratio, converts it to log scale, and then fits rolling 10-year and 15-year regression trends. It plots the residual z-score of the ratio relative to those trends. In plain terms, the indicator shows whether growth is unusually strong or weak versus value after accounting for the long-term upward trend in growth/value leadership.
A z-score near 0 means the ratio is near trend. A positive z-score means growth is above trend versus value. A negative z-score means growth is below trend versus value. The script plots reference bands at ±1.5, ±2.0, and ±2.5 standard deviations.
The signal logic is contrarian and re-entry based. A VALUE signal occurs when the selected z-score has moved above the chosen positive threshold and then crosses back below it. This means growth became statistically stretched and then started to fail. A GROWTH signal occurs when the selected z-score has moved below the chosen negative threshold and then crosses back above it. This means growth became statistically washed out and then started to recover.
Suggested use:
Use the 15-year z-score for the cleaner, long-cycle signal. Use the 10-year z-score for a more responsive, current-regime read. The ±2.5 threshold is the highest-conviction signal and will fire rarely. The ±2.0 and ±1.5 levels are better treated as early-warning zones rather than automatic trade signals.
The indicator does not read manual TradingView trendlines. It creates its own statistical trend using rolling regression. The strongest setup occurs when the z-score signal aligns with the visual long-term channel on the VIGAX/VVIAX chart.
The indicator is not designed to work with charts other than the VIGAX/VVIAX chart.
Code by ChatGPT 5.5 Thinking
Prompts by Jeremy L. A. Hill Edwards
Script open-source
Dans l'esprit TradingView, le créateur de ce script l'a rendu open source afin que les traders puissent examiner et vérifier ses fonctionnalités. Bravo à l'auteur! Bien que vous puissiez l'utiliser gratuitement, n'oubliez pas que la republication du code est soumise à nos Règles.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Script open-source
Dans l'esprit TradingView, le créateur de ce script l'a rendu open source afin que les traders puissent examiner et vérifier ses fonctionnalités. Bravo à l'auteur! Bien que vous puissiez l'utiliser gratuitement, n'oubliez pas que la republication du code est soumise à nos Règles.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou recommandations financiers, d'investissement, de trading ou autres fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.