US Tariffs & Trade Wars
Updated May 2026 · All figures from current market research
Avg. effective tariff rate
11.8%
Up from 2.5% in Jan 2025
Peak tariff rate (China)
145%
April 2025 peak
IEEPA tariffs collected
$166B
Later ruled unconstitutional
USD decline (2025)
−10%
Dollar Index (DXY)
----------------------------------------------Key policy events------------------------------------------
Updated May 2026 · All figures from current market research
Avg. effective tariff rate
11.8%
Up from 2.5% in Jan 2025
Peak tariff rate (China)
145%
April 2025 peak
IEEPA tariffs collected
$166B
Later ruled unconstitutional
USD decline (2025)
−10%
Dollar Index (DXY)
----------------------------------------------Key policy events------------------------------------------
- Jan – Mar 2025
- 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico goods; 25% on all steel & aluminum globally, eliminating prior exemptions.
- Apr 2, 2025 — "Liberation Day"
- Blanket 10% tariff on all imports from ~180 countries; country-specific "reciprocal" rates up to 49%. Triggered a global stock market crash; S&P 500 fell below 5,000.
Apr 9, 2025 - 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China. S&P 500 surged 9.5% in a single day — largest gain since 2008. China's rate raised to 145%.
Mid-2025 - Steel & aluminum tariffs raised to 50%. Trade deal frameworks reached with EU, Japan, South Korea, and a US-China truce.
Feb 2026 - Supreme Court ruled IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional. Trump announced new 10% global tariff under Section 122 for 150 days.
----------------------------------------------Market & asset class impact-----------------------------
Equities
S&P 500 fell 10% in two days post-Liberation Day. Tech, basic materials, and energy hit hardest (−7% to −9%). Partial recovery followed each pause announcement. J.P. Morgan targets S&P range of 5,200–5,800.
US Dollar
Dollar depreciated on Liberation Day — contrary to standard theory. Foreign investors reallocated away from US equities. DXY down ~10% for 2025. Central banks globally accelerated gold purchases as dollar alternatives.
Commodities
Gold rose as a safe haven. WTI oil fell on global demand concerns. Steel & aluminum prices elevated due to import restrictions. Agricultural commodities hurt by retaliatory tariffs on US exports.
Fixed Income
US Treasury 10-year yields initially fell, then rose sharply post-Liberation Day (bond vigilantism). Concerns over Fed independence added pressure. BlackRock & others remain underweight long-duration Treasuries.
--------------------------------------------Key risks & watch points----------------------------------
Policy unpredictability
Critical
Tariff rates can change within hours. The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index skyrocketed in 2025. Companies face near-impossible demand forecasting conditions. Any escalation with EU or China is a major risk trigger.
Inflationary pressure
Elevated
US firms absorbed ~60% of tariff costs in 2025; pass-through to consumers is accelerating. Core inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. Fed has limited room to cut rates to provide stimulus.
Supply chain re-routing
Structural shift
US imports from China near 2001 levels. Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Eastern Europe emerging as alternative sourcing hubs. Regional supply chains could account for 50% of global trade by 2030 (BCG). Efficiency losses are long-term.
Hye Guys,Welcome to a professional trading journey built on precision, discipline, and smart money concepts.
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📞 Phone: +91 93159 78955
💬 WhatsApp: wa.link/kdkejz
📩 Contact Mail: globalwolfstreet@gmail.com
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Hye Guys,Welcome to a professional trading journey built on precision, discipline, and smart money concepts.
📞 Phone: +91 93159 78955
💬 WhatsApp: wa.link/kdkejz
📩 Contact Mail: globalwolfstreet@gmail.com
📞 Phone: +91 93159 78955
💬 WhatsApp: wa.link/kdkejz
📩 Contact Mail: globalwolfstreet@gmail.com
Publikasi terkait
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.