The biggest question on my mind right now is simple:
Was $57,735 actually the bottom of this bear market?
If that was the cycle low, Bitcoin has completed roughly 266 days of this bear-market phase from the 2025 top.
And this is where the current cycle becomes very interesting when we compare it with previous Bitcoin bear markets.
Historical Bear Markets
Looking at the previous major cycles, Bitcoin's bear markets have generally lasted around a full year.
In 2018, the bear market started after the December 2017 top and continued until the December 2018 bottom roughly 52 weekly candles / one year.
Then, after the November 2021 ATH, Bitcoin entered another major bear market that eventually bottomed in November 2022, again taking roughly one year.
So historically, a full-year duration has been a common characteristic of major BTC bear markets.
But this cycle is behaving differently.
The Current Cycle
From the 2025 ATH to the low around $57,735, Bitcoin experienced a significant correction.
According to the structure shown on the chart, that decline lasted around 266 days.
If $57,735 was the final low, then this bear market would have ended considerably earlier than the previous major cycles.
And since that low, Bitcoin has already recovered approximately 42%.
That's a very significant recovery.
The question now is whether this recovery represents the beginning of the next bull-market phase or simply a strong relief rally inside a larger bear market.
The 3-Week Question
This is the part I find most interesting.
Based on the historical duration shown on the chart, Bitcoin would still need approximately three more weekly candles to reach the one-year timeframe seen in previous major bear markets.
That creates two very different possibilities.
Scenario 1 The June Low Was the Bottom
If $57,735 was the cycle bottom, then this bear market has been much shorter than previous major cycles.
The ~42% recovery from the low could mean Bitcoin has already transitioned into the next bullish phase.
In that case, the historical one-year duration would simply not apply this time.
Scenario 2 One More Major Correction
The other possibility is that Bitcoin hasn't completed the bear market yet.
If the historical timing pattern continues to matter, these next three weekly candles could become extremely important.
We could potentially see another significant correction before the market finally establishes the next major cycle bottom.
What I'm Watching
The most important thing for me is confirmation rather than prediction.
Bitcoin has already recovered strongly from the June low, so I don't think it's wise to automatically assume that another major dump must happen simply because previous cycles lasted around a year.
At the same time, I also don't think we should declare a new bull market confirmed solely because BTC has bounced around 42%.
The next few weekly closes should tell us much more.
If BTC continues holding the recovery structure and starts establishing higher highs and higher lows, that would support the idea that the June low was the bottom.
But if we see a major rejection and a breakdown of the current structure, then the possibility of another deeper correction becomes much more relevant.
Final Thoughts
This is one of those situations where historical data gives us a framework, not a guarantee.
Previous cycles suggest that major bear markets can last around a year.
This cycle has already given us a roughly 42% recovery from the $57,735 low, while the historical timeframe suggests we still have around three weekly candles to reach that one-year mark.
So the real question is:
Did Bitcoin already finish its bear market early, or are these final three weeks going to surprise us with another major move lower?
BTC has surprised us many times before.
For now, I'm going to wait for the next few weekly closes before making any strong conclusion about the cycle bottom.
What do you think was $57,735 the actual bottom of this bear market, or are we going to see one more major correction before the next bull market begins?
Was $57,735 actually the bottom of this bear market?
If that was the cycle low, Bitcoin has completed roughly 266 days of this bear-market phase from the 2025 top.
And this is where the current cycle becomes very interesting when we compare it with previous Bitcoin bear markets.
Historical Bear Markets
Looking at the previous major cycles, Bitcoin's bear markets have generally lasted around a full year.
In 2018, the bear market started after the December 2017 top and continued until the December 2018 bottom roughly 52 weekly candles / one year.
Then, after the November 2021 ATH, Bitcoin entered another major bear market that eventually bottomed in November 2022, again taking roughly one year.
So historically, a full-year duration has been a common characteristic of major BTC bear markets.
But this cycle is behaving differently.
The Current Cycle
From the 2025 ATH to the low around $57,735, Bitcoin experienced a significant correction.
According to the structure shown on the chart, that decline lasted around 266 days.
If $57,735 was the final low, then this bear market would have ended considerably earlier than the previous major cycles.
And since that low, Bitcoin has already recovered approximately 42%.
That's a very significant recovery.
The question now is whether this recovery represents the beginning of the next bull-market phase or simply a strong relief rally inside a larger bear market.
The 3-Week Question
This is the part I find most interesting.
Based on the historical duration shown on the chart, Bitcoin would still need approximately three more weekly candles to reach the one-year timeframe seen in previous major bear markets.
That creates two very different possibilities.
Scenario 1 The June Low Was the Bottom
If $57,735 was the cycle bottom, then this bear market has been much shorter than previous major cycles.
The ~42% recovery from the low could mean Bitcoin has already transitioned into the next bullish phase.
In that case, the historical one-year duration would simply not apply this time.
Scenario 2 One More Major Correction
The other possibility is that Bitcoin hasn't completed the bear market yet.
If the historical timing pattern continues to matter, these next three weekly candles could become extremely important.
We could potentially see another significant correction before the market finally establishes the next major cycle bottom.
What I'm Watching
The most important thing for me is confirmation rather than prediction.
Bitcoin has already recovered strongly from the June low, so I don't think it's wise to automatically assume that another major dump must happen simply because previous cycles lasted around a year.
At the same time, I also don't think we should declare a new bull market confirmed solely because BTC has bounced around 42%.
The next few weekly closes should tell us much more.
If BTC continues holding the recovery structure and starts establishing higher highs and higher lows, that would support the idea that the June low was the bottom.
But if we see a major rejection and a breakdown of the current structure, then the possibility of another deeper correction becomes much more relevant.
Final Thoughts
This is one of those situations where historical data gives us a framework, not a guarantee.
Previous cycles suggest that major bear markets can last around a year.
This cycle has already given us a roughly 42% recovery from the $57,735 low, while the historical timeframe suggests we still have around three weekly candles to reach that one-year mark.
So the real question is:
Did Bitcoin already finish its bear market early, or are these final three weeks going to surprise us with another major move lower?
BTC has surprised us many times before.
For now, I'm going to wait for the next few weekly closes before making any strong conclusion about the cycle bottom.
What do you think was $57,735 the actual bottom of this bear market, or are we going to see one more major correction before the next bull market begins?
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Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
Register on weex and trade with me: 👇
weex.com/en/register?vipCode=cryptomojo
Get CRYPTOMOJO premium for free 👉 t.me/CRYPTOMOJO_TA
weex.com/en/register?vipCode=cryptomojo
Get CRYPTOMOJO premium for free 👉 t.me/CRYPTOMOJO_TA
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.