USD Index | Rising Channel Breakdown

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The recent USD bounce unfolded within a clearly defined rising channel, but that structure has now been broken to the downside. This suggests the counter-trend move is likely complete, with attention shifting back to the underlying support zone.

From a technical perspective, price has decisively slipped below the lower boundary of the channel, which changes the short-term bias. The highlighted support area below now becomes the primary area of interest, as it represents both prior demand and the origin of the most recent impulsive move higher.

The primary scenario is that price continues to gravitate towards this support zone, where some form of stabilisation or reaction would be reasonable to monitor. As long as price remains below the former channel base, the upside looks more corrective rather than impulsive.

That said, it’s also worth acknowledging that the downside move is becoming increasingly extended on momentum. If support does not hold cleanly, an alternative interpretation is that price may be carving out a broader rising channel, with the recent break acting as a reset rather than a full trend shift.

For now, the key focus is the support zone below. How price behaves there should help clarify whether this is continuation lower, or the early stages of a larger corrective structure taking shape.

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