I've talked about this setup before. ESRT's real estate portfolio (which includes the prized Empire State Building) along with its 90%+ lease rate point to a well-run company with well-managed assets.
For months I've pointed to one level, $3.93, as the spot where price needed to prove its taper and start the long road to recovery.
Last Friday was the 3rd-highest volume day in the company's history, and price closed right on $3.93.
Capitulation or distribution?
Volume that big at a key level can mean two opposite things:
Capitulation: the last sellers give up, and buyers absorb everything at support. That usually marks a bottom.
Distribution: large holders use the liquidity to get out, and price keeps falling once the volume is gone.
Friday's candle alone can't tell you which one it was. The next few sessions will. The fact that we didn't cross any known liquidity levels as of recent points me toward the former. If this is capitulation, I want to see $3.93 hold, buyers follow through, and volume fade on any red days.
Invalidation: a daily close below $3.85, or a move below $3.80 on the weekly. Either one tells me this was distribution, and I'm out.
The roadmap:
Near term: $5.70, where recent flip zone liquidity was proven.
Mid term: once it gains momentum and breaks out of the HTF selling channel, the top of the taper around $10.
Longer term: a breakout toward $12, which would confirm we've found our bottom.
I've entered the first of several planned positions here, and I'll add as the next few days confirm.
Happy Trading :)
For months I've pointed to one level, $3.93, as the spot where price needed to prove its taper and start the long road to recovery.
Last Friday was the 3rd-highest volume day in the company's history, and price closed right on $3.93.
Capitulation or distribution?
Volume that big at a key level can mean two opposite things:
Capitulation: the last sellers give up, and buyers absorb everything at support. That usually marks a bottom.
Distribution: large holders use the liquidity to get out, and price keeps falling once the volume is gone.
Friday's candle alone can't tell you which one it was. The next few sessions will. The fact that we didn't cross any known liquidity levels as of recent points me toward the former. If this is capitulation, I want to see $3.93 hold, buyers follow through, and volume fade on any red days.
Invalidation: a daily close below $3.85, or a move below $3.80 on the weekly. Either one tells me this was distribution, and I'm out.
The roadmap:
Near term: $5.70, where recent flip zone liquidity was proven.
Mid term: once it gains momentum and breaks out of the HTF selling channel, the top of the taper around $10.
Longer term: a breakout toward $12, which would confirm we've found our bottom.
I've entered the first of several planned positions here, and I'll add as the next few days confirm.
Happy Trading :)
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Weekly 'In the Trades' Newsletter - My favorite tradable setups right to your inbox!
betweenthetrades.substack.com
betweenthetrades.substack.com
Publikasi terkait
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.