Most of the space seems to think that the bull market is officially over, that the four-year cycle has come to a close. For most of the cycle, I have thought that way too. 1,064 days is up, and that’s the longest a Bitcoin cycle has ever gone for. So, the idea that the same thing will play out again is very valid, and it’s entirely possible that it is indeed the end. However, my stance is very different — I still think we have one year left in the tank, and I will present a lot of evidence to support why I believe this and why I’m sticking to it.
If you’ve been following me for a while, you know that we’ve found some very interesting bar patterns in history that keep on repeating, and this will be the primary source of evidence used in my thesis.
Bar Pattern Fractals
I have tested hundreds of indicators over the last six years and bought thousands of dollars’ worth of indicators, and in the end, the highest success rate has come from simply following bar pattern fractals. They repeat over and over. They are hard to find, but once you do, you can ride them for months.
ETH 2017 Fractal
What you see above is a fractal I have been following for months now. It has been mirroring the 2017 cycle, with some parts nearly identical in movement and timing, with only a few small deviations here and there. The macro pattern continues to play out like clockwork.
Take a look at this TA from March 2025. We caught near the bottom, called for max pain, and discussed this fractal that could be playing out. The ETH call was under 2000 back then.
I also published TAs on Chainlink and its repeating bar patterns. It was straightforward for catching big macro moves for LINK.
As you can see, these are just two examples of many fractals I’m following. The main one is ETH because it’s been a 1:1 mirror for the most part. The last spike down was a deviation for sure — well, at first I thought it was on the Bitstamp chart because it has the most historical data for ETH, but when I switched to the Binance chart, I found something very interesting.
A view of the bar pattern fractal is telling us where we are.
When switching to the Binance chart, we see a very interesting wick of 26% that nuked the market during that time — very similar to what Binance has done this time around. You cannot make this stuff up. So at first, I thought it was a small deviation, but in fact, after looking at this chart, it’s still a mirror, even including that huge scam wick of 27%. Amazing.
So as you can see, in terms of the bar pattern fractal, I simply cannot ignore the fact that this keeps mirroring, and if it continues, it’s possible that we have one more year left in this bull market, and that this four-year cycle thesis is, in fact, a massive bear trap.
If we take a look at the monthly candle that shook a lot of players out last cycle before the run-up, we can see that we printed a candle with wicks on both ends — very similar to what we are forming right now.
If we zoom into that moment on a smaller timeframe, you can now see the moves are similar — a big drop into a double bottom followed by a slow grind up. This is how ETH normally puts in bottoms.
Looking at ETH’s RSI levels on the monthly chart — during the first cycle, when it broke the all-time high, RSI was extremely overbought at 87. On the last cycle, it was 82. This cycle, ETH is at an all-time high and the RSI is only 59. We’re not even in the overbought range yet — there’s so much room for ETH to expand, it’s crazy.
Since its inception, ETH has always pulled off the same move: one very aggressive wave with an aggressive pullback, followed by one smaller wave that creates a higher high to finish off the cycle. It’s done this every time.
Which means that if the bar pattern fractal continues to mirror, then wave 1 tops in the first week of January 2026, followed by a massive correction that will again fool everyone into thinking the four-year cycle is 100% over. But what if ETH puts in a bottom in February 2026 and rallies back up to all-time highs? Nobody would believe it — the disbelief would be strong because everyone would have sold the top in Q4 2025 due to the four-year cycle theory.
The second major piece of evidence I’m leaning on is the Russell 2000. Since its inception, the Russell 2000 has done the exact same thing before expansion comes:
Double top
Second drop bear trap
V-shaped recovery back to all-time high
Expansion breakout
Same thing every time. Look at the chart and tell me we’re not going into expansion — there’s a very high chance. The last two times, we got that massive monthly candle breakout in November.
Which brings me to the main point — every time the Russell goes into expansion, Bitcoin has started its most aggressive run. The last three times, Bitcoin went on to break its all-time high and put in a cycle top within an average of 355 days.
Gold, shown above, is so close to the 4.236 extension right now that it would be crazy to buy here. There’s a high chance of a major top coming in, and we’re about to see a major rotation back into Bitcoin with those gains.
Just take a look at the Power of Law model for Bitcoin — the bull market hasn’t even started yet.
It’s crazy that people are calling the cycle top with the Mayer Multiple sitting at 1.19.
Conclusion
My view is that there is one more year left in this uptrend in crypto. Bitcoin has turned into a different beast. It has completely detached itself from the rest of crypto for the most part, but the first expansion is coming in 2026. If the bar pattern does not deviate, then greatness lies ahead.
If you’ve been following me for a while, you know that we’ve found some very interesting bar patterns in history that keep on repeating, and this will be the primary source of evidence used in my thesis.
Bar Pattern Fractals
I have tested hundreds of indicators over the last six years and bought thousands of dollars’ worth of indicators, and in the end, the highest success rate has come from simply following bar pattern fractals. They repeat over and over. They are hard to find, but once you do, you can ride them for months.
ETH 2017 Fractal
What you see above is a fractal I have been following for months now. It has been mirroring the 2017 cycle, with some parts nearly identical in movement and timing, with only a few small deviations here and there. The macro pattern continues to play out like clockwork.
Take a look at this TA from March 2025. We caught near the bottom, called for max pain, and discussed this fractal that could be playing out. The ETH call was under 2000 back then.
I also published TAs on Chainlink and its repeating bar patterns. It was straightforward for catching big macro moves for LINK.
As you can see, these are just two examples of many fractals I’m following. The main one is ETH because it’s been a 1:1 mirror for the most part. The last spike down was a deviation for sure — well, at first I thought it was on the Bitstamp chart because it has the most historical data for ETH, but when I switched to the Binance chart, I found something very interesting.
A view of the bar pattern fractal is telling us where we are.
When switching to the Binance chart, we see a very interesting wick of 26% that nuked the market during that time — very similar to what Binance has done this time around. You cannot make this stuff up. So at first, I thought it was a small deviation, but in fact, after looking at this chart, it’s still a mirror, even including that huge scam wick of 27%. Amazing.
So as you can see, in terms of the bar pattern fractal, I simply cannot ignore the fact that this keeps mirroring, and if it continues, it’s possible that we have one more year left in this bull market, and that this four-year cycle thesis is, in fact, a massive bear trap.
If we take a look at the monthly candle that shook a lot of players out last cycle before the run-up, we can see that we printed a candle with wicks on both ends — very similar to what we are forming right now.
If we zoom into that moment on a smaller timeframe, you can now see the moves are similar — a big drop into a double bottom followed by a slow grind up. This is how ETH normally puts in bottoms.
Looking at ETH’s RSI levels on the monthly chart — during the first cycle, when it broke the all-time high, RSI was extremely overbought at 87. On the last cycle, it was 82. This cycle, ETH is at an all-time high and the RSI is only 59. We’re not even in the overbought range yet — there’s so much room for ETH to expand, it’s crazy.
Since its inception, ETH has always pulled off the same move: one very aggressive wave with an aggressive pullback, followed by one smaller wave that creates a higher high to finish off the cycle. It’s done this every time.
Which means that if the bar pattern fractal continues to mirror, then wave 1 tops in the first week of January 2026, followed by a massive correction that will again fool everyone into thinking the four-year cycle is 100% over. But what if ETH puts in a bottom in February 2026 and rallies back up to all-time highs? Nobody would believe it — the disbelief would be strong because everyone would have sold the top in Q4 2025 due to the four-year cycle theory.
The second major piece of evidence I’m leaning on is the Russell 2000. Since its inception, the Russell 2000 has done the exact same thing before expansion comes:
Double top
Second drop bear trap
V-shaped recovery back to all-time high
Expansion breakout
Same thing every time. Look at the chart and tell me we’re not going into expansion — there’s a very high chance. The last two times, we got that massive monthly candle breakout in November.
Which brings me to the main point — every time the Russell goes into expansion, Bitcoin has started its most aggressive run. The last three times, Bitcoin went on to break its all-time high and put in a cycle top within an average of 355 days.
Gold, shown above, is so close to the 4.236 extension right now that it would be crazy to buy here. There’s a high chance of a major top coming in, and we’re about to see a major rotation back into Bitcoin with those gains.
Just take a look at the Power of Law model for Bitcoin — the bull market hasn’t even started yet.
It’s crazy that people are calling the cycle top with the Mayer Multiple sitting at 1.19.
Conclusion
My view is that there is one more year left in this uptrend in crypto. Bitcoin has turned into a different beast. It has completely detached itself from the rest of crypto for the most part, but the first expansion is coming in 2026. If the bar pattern does not deviate, then greatness lies ahead.
Catatan
we continue to mirror breakout next week
Catatan
Closing weekly above the 8/1 Gann Fan here would be extremely bullish and more evidence of upside
Catatan
Big week ahead , ready up!Catatan
Three drives of bullish divergence , lower highs on RSI , money flow green = We going up
Catatan
Picture above was showing wrong timeframe looking at early Nov back to ATH
Catatan
Catatan
as expected massive selloff in GOLD huge wick here on the monthly closing like this would most likely signal massive multi year top
Catatan
We not calling 100x here , its 6x , is it really that crazy of a target? :P
Catatan
All im saying is ETH is going to the top of this channel like it has last two times by Nov 2026Catatan
So much fear, so much emotion in the market — BTC is only 12% from its all-time high. Madness.
ETH RSI is printing lower highs, with a possible fourth drive of bullish divergence forming right now. ETH bottom grinds are very deceiving.
Catatan
After 400 days seems the bar pattern is now deviated , it was a good run but I still think we hit 30k Oct 2026
Catatan
Update 
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.