EUINTRSeptember/2025
source: European Central Bank
- The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit facility at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, as expected.
Inflation remains close to the 2% medium-term target, and the outlook is broadly unchanged from June.
New staff projections see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, easing to 1.7% in 2026 before rising slightly to 1.9% in 2027.
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) is expected at 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027.
Growth is projected at 1.2% in 2025 (up from 0.9%), slowing to 1.0% in 2026, and recovering to 1.3% in 2027.
The Governing Council reaffirmed its determination to anchor inflation at 2% in the medium term, emphasizing a cautious, meeting-by-meeting, data-driven approach.
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