EUR/NZD has rallied ~250 pips from the May spike low at 1.9700 back into a dual-layer supply structure. Two sequenced short setups are active simultaneously.
⚡ SETUP 1 — Small Position (Near-term)
Entry: 1.9843–1.9943 | SL: 1.9990 | TP: 1.9822
R:R: ~2.0R | Captures the near-term $$$$$ cluster rejection
🔻 SETUP 2 — Big Position (Macro)
Entry: 1.9943–2.0050 | SL: 2.0117 | TP1: 1.9741 | TP2: 1.9711
R:R: ~4.2R | Full measured move back to spike origin demand zone
The macro supply zone at 1.9943–2.0050 is the exact origin of May's explosive breakdown. Price retesting it from below — with the $$$$$ liquidity cluster at the lower boundary — creates a high-probability institutional sell zone. Setup 1 exploits the near-term rejection while Setup 2 targets the full retracement to the 1.9711–1.9741 demand zone.
Confluences:
$$$$$ liquidity cluster at 1.9943 = Setup 1 trigger
Macro supply zone at 1.9943–2.0050 = prior breakdown origin
NZD broad strength across watchlist (NZDUSD, NZDCHF all relevant)
Clean measured move — rally from demand, short back to demand
Sequencing: Close Setup 1 at 1.9822 → use bearish confirmation to size into Setup 2 on any push into the full supply zone.
Invalidation: Setup 1 → 4H close above 1.9990. Setup 2 → 4H close above 2.0117.
⚡ SETUP 1 — Small Position (Near-term)
Entry: 1.9843–1.9943 | SL: 1.9990 | TP: 1.9822
R:R: ~2.0R | Captures the near-term $$$$$ cluster rejection
🔻 SETUP 2 — Big Position (Macro)
Entry: 1.9943–2.0050 | SL: 2.0117 | TP1: 1.9741 | TP2: 1.9711
R:R: ~4.2R | Full measured move back to spike origin demand zone
The macro supply zone at 1.9943–2.0050 is the exact origin of May's explosive breakdown. Price retesting it from below — with the $$$$$ liquidity cluster at the lower boundary — creates a high-probability institutional sell zone. Setup 1 exploits the near-term rejection while Setup 2 targets the full retracement to the 1.9711–1.9741 demand zone.
Confluences:
$$$$$ liquidity cluster at 1.9943 = Setup 1 trigger
Macro supply zone at 1.9943–2.0050 = prior breakdown origin
NZD broad strength across watchlist (NZDUSD, NZDCHF all relevant)
Clean measured move — rally from demand, short back to demand
Sequencing: Close Setup 1 at 1.9822 → use bearish confirmation to size into Setup 2 on any push into the full supply zone.
Invalidation: Setup 1 → 4H close above 1.9990. Setup 2 → 4H close above 2.0117.
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