Daily Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is currently trading around the 1.337 area, holding above a rising channel structure after breaking through the 1.322 demand zone at the start of December. Recent daily candles show slowing bullish momentum under a higher–timeframe supply zone extending toward 1.345–1.355 and potentially 1.360.
The technical outlook suggests a possible short–term pullback: a liquidity sweep below daily lows could bring price back toward the lower trendline and potentially into the 1.331–1.324 area before any continuation higher.
Bullish invalidation remains below 1.322.
The bullish continuation target remains 1.345, with potential extension toward 1.360 if momentum holds.
COT Positioning
Non–Commercials remain heavily short on the British Pound relative to longs (135,834 vs 60,319 contracts), indicating that most speculative positioning remains bearish on GBP. However, the latest weekly update shows a significant increase in long positions (+8,067) and a smaller increase in shorts (+3,402), suggesting a gradual sentiment shift with underlying bullish accumulation.
On the USD Index side, speculative positioning remains net short (28,652 short vs 14,778 long). Combined, this creates a medium–term directional bias supportive of GBP/USD upside: strengthening GBP + weakening Dollar Index is a potentially expansive backdrop.
Retail Sentiment
Retail sentiment currently shows 52% short and 48% long on GBP/USD. This is nearly neutral but slightly contrarian bullish, as the marginal majority of short positioning runs against the recent trend. Any pullback may encourage further retail short exposure, potentially setting up a bullish rotation afterwards.
Seasonality - December Bias
Seasonality confirms a historically bullish tendency in December:
– 20–year average: slightly positive
– 15–year average: positive
– 10–year average: slightly positive
– 5–year average: strongly positive
– 2–year average: strongly positive
This reinforces the potential for year–end upside continuation and supports a bullish narrative above 1.345 following any corrective pullback.
Trade Outlook
The base scenario remains a short–term pullback into key levels, followed by potential bullish continuation toward upper supply zones.
Short–term pullback zone: 1.331–1.324
Bullish continuation zone: 1.345–1.355
Primary extension target: 1.360
Conclusion
GBP/USD maintains a bullish daily structure. Despite heavy speculative short positioning, recent COT flows, positive seasonality, and balanced retail sentiment continue to support the idea of further upside into year–end. Technically, price is approaching a decision level below 1.345: I will be watching for a structured pullback before assessing the next bullish leg toward 1.360.
A break below 1.322 would invalidate the bullish structure and return price to a deeper accumulation phase.
GBP/USD is currently trading around the 1.337 area, holding above a rising channel structure after breaking through the 1.322 demand zone at the start of December. Recent daily candles show slowing bullish momentum under a higher–timeframe supply zone extending toward 1.345–1.355 and potentially 1.360.
The technical outlook suggests a possible short–term pullback: a liquidity sweep below daily lows could bring price back toward the lower trendline and potentially into the 1.331–1.324 area before any continuation higher.
Bullish invalidation remains below 1.322.
The bullish continuation target remains 1.345, with potential extension toward 1.360 if momentum holds.
COT Positioning
Non–Commercials remain heavily short on the British Pound relative to longs (135,834 vs 60,319 contracts), indicating that most speculative positioning remains bearish on GBP. However, the latest weekly update shows a significant increase in long positions (+8,067) and a smaller increase in shorts (+3,402), suggesting a gradual sentiment shift with underlying bullish accumulation.
On the USD Index side, speculative positioning remains net short (28,652 short vs 14,778 long). Combined, this creates a medium–term directional bias supportive of GBP/USD upside: strengthening GBP + weakening Dollar Index is a potentially expansive backdrop.
Retail Sentiment
Retail sentiment currently shows 52% short and 48% long on GBP/USD. This is nearly neutral but slightly contrarian bullish, as the marginal majority of short positioning runs against the recent trend. Any pullback may encourage further retail short exposure, potentially setting up a bullish rotation afterwards.
Seasonality - December Bias
Seasonality confirms a historically bullish tendency in December:
– 20–year average: slightly positive
– 15–year average: positive
– 10–year average: slightly positive
– 5–year average: strongly positive
– 2–year average: strongly positive
This reinforces the potential for year–end upside continuation and supports a bullish narrative above 1.345 following any corrective pullback.
Trade Outlook
The base scenario remains a short–term pullback into key levels, followed by potential bullish continuation toward upper supply zones.
Short–term pullback zone: 1.331–1.324
Bullish continuation zone: 1.345–1.355
Primary extension target: 1.360
Conclusion
GBP/USD maintains a bullish daily structure. Despite heavy speculative short positioning, recent COT flows, positive seasonality, and balanced retail sentiment continue to support the idea of further upside into year–end. Technically, price is approaching a decision level below 1.345: I will be watching for a structured pullback before assessing the next bullish leg toward 1.360.
A break below 1.322 would invalidate the bullish structure and return price to a deeper accumulation phase.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.