1. Preferred Short: Upper Repair-Band Failure
Location: 7,685–7,707.75
Setup: SR-with-retest progressing into Combination Confirmation
Ideal sequence:
MES trades into 7,685–7,707.75.
Buyers fail to establish acceptance.
Price breaks back below 7,685.
The recovery attempt into 7,685 fails.
Enter only after the failed reclaim, not on the initial touch.
This is the cleanest short location because it allows the post-FOMC rebound to reach meaningful resistance before asking sellers to prove themselves.
Targets: 7,666.50 → 7,655.75 → 7,634
Structural invalidation: Acceptance above 7,707.75, especially with broad improvement.
2. Nearer Short: Decision-Zone Failure
Location: 7,666.50–7,685
Setup: Combination Confirmation
Ideal sequence:
MES rejects 7,666.50–7,685.
Price loses 7,655.75.
The retest of 7,655.75–7,666.50 fails from underneath.
Sellers then receive permission to target 7,634.
This is valid but slightly less attractive than the higher short because current price is already inside this decision area. We need separation from the zone before entering.
Targets: 7,634 → 7,578.50
Invalidation: Recovery and sustained acceptance above 7,685.
3. Best Continuation Short
Location: Below 7,634
Setup: Break & Retest
Ideal sequence:
MES breaks 7,634 decisively.
Do not chase the first flush.
Price returns to 7,634 from below.
The level rejects the reclaim.
Enter on renewed downside expansion.
Targets: Post-FOMC low/approximately 7,600 → 7,578.50
Invalidation: Reclaim and sustained hold above 7,634.
This becomes much stronger if volatility firms and breadth deteriorates during the retest.
4. Best Bullish Repair Setup
Location: Above 7,685
Setup: Break & Retest long
Ideal sequence:
MES accepts above 7,685, not merely wicks through it.
Price pulls back into 7,666.50–7,685.
Buyers defend the former resistance zone.
Price expands away from the retest.
Targets: 7,707.75 → 7,728.50 → 7,740.25
Invalidation: Loss of 7,666.50, with a deeper failure below 7,655.75.
This is the setup that would challenge the tactical risk-off thesis. We should not remain married to the short if the repair receives broad confirmation.
5. Failed-Breakdown Reversal
Location: 7,634
Setup: Breakdown failure + reclaim/retest
Ideal sequence:
MES breaks beneath 7,634.
Volatility and breadth fail to confirm.
Price quickly reclaims 7,634.
A retest holds above it.
That would suggest sellers could not produce acceptance below the breakdown level.
Targets: 7,655.75 → 7,666.50 → 7,685
Invalidation: Renewed acceptance below 7,634.
Location: 7,685–7,707.75
Setup: SR-with-retest progressing into Combination Confirmation
Ideal sequence:
MES trades into 7,685–7,707.75.
Buyers fail to establish acceptance.
Price breaks back below 7,685.
The recovery attempt into 7,685 fails.
Enter only after the failed reclaim, not on the initial touch.
This is the cleanest short location because it allows the post-FOMC rebound to reach meaningful resistance before asking sellers to prove themselves.
Targets: 7,666.50 → 7,655.75 → 7,634
Structural invalidation: Acceptance above 7,707.75, especially with broad improvement.
2. Nearer Short: Decision-Zone Failure
Location: 7,666.50–7,685
Setup: Combination Confirmation
Ideal sequence:
MES rejects 7,666.50–7,685.
Price loses 7,655.75.
The retest of 7,655.75–7,666.50 fails from underneath.
Sellers then receive permission to target 7,634.
This is valid but slightly less attractive than the higher short because current price is already inside this decision area. We need separation from the zone before entering.
Targets: 7,634 → 7,578.50
Invalidation: Recovery and sustained acceptance above 7,685.
3. Best Continuation Short
Location: Below 7,634
Setup: Break & Retest
Ideal sequence:
MES breaks 7,634 decisively.
Do not chase the first flush.
Price returns to 7,634 from below.
The level rejects the reclaim.
Enter on renewed downside expansion.
Targets: Post-FOMC low/approximately 7,600 → 7,578.50
Invalidation: Reclaim and sustained hold above 7,634.
This becomes much stronger if volatility firms and breadth deteriorates during the retest.
4. Best Bullish Repair Setup
Location: Above 7,685
Setup: Break & Retest long
Ideal sequence:
MES accepts above 7,685, not merely wicks through it.
Price pulls back into 7,666.50–7,685.
Buyers defend the former resistance zone.
Price expands away from the retest.
Targets: 7,707.75 → 7,728.50 → 7,740.25
Invalidation: Loss of 7,666.50, with a deeper failure below 7,655.75.
This is the setup that would challenge the tactical risk-off thesis. We should not remain married to the short if the repair receives broad confirmation.
5. Failed-Breakdown Reversal
Location: 7,634
Setup: Breakdown failure + reclaim/retest
Ideal sequence:
MES breaks beneath 7,634.
Volatility and breadth fail to confirm.
Price quickly reclaims 7,634.
A retest holds above it.
That would suggest sellers could not produce acceptance below the breakdown level.
Targets: 7,655.75 → 7,666.50 → 7,685
Invalidation: Renewed acceptance below 7,634.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.