Since its 2021 IPO, every single rally in Nu Holdings has been contained within a rising wedge. Upper boundary capped every bull run. Lower boundary caught every correction. Five years. One structure. Now broken.
The May 15 earnings miss triggered a decisive breakdown candle below the wedge's lower trendline, the foundational support of the stock's entire traded history. The Cup and Handle that had built such a compelling breakout narrative failed at exactly the wrong level, the neckline and rising wedge resistance converging simultaneously at $17-19. Two resistance layers. Zero follow-through.
Where we are now:
Price has found temporary support at the VRVP Point of Control, the most traded price level in NU's history. This is a genuine support. But it sits above an air pocket. Below the POC, volume thins dramatically until the Golden Ratio zone. If the POC fails, price doesn't grind lower, it falls.
The road map:
→ $12.00-$12.50 — VRVP POC. Current support. Decision point.
→ $10.85 — 200 Day EMA + 50% Fibonacci. First meaningful catch if POC fails.
→ $9.00-$9.12 — 61.8% Fibonacci Golden Ratio + VRVP Value Area Low. The highest conviction level on the chart. Two independent frameworks. One price.
→ $6.44 — 78.6% Fibonacci. Bear case.
The probabilities:
🟢 POC holds → bounce to $14-15 — 30%
🟡 200 EMA catches at $10.85 — 25%
🔴 Golden Ratio reached at $9.12 — 30%
🟣 Deep retracement to $6.44 — 15%
Why the fundamentals don't save it yet:
64% revenue growth. 135 million customers. $16 billion in cash. US bank charter incoming. The business is not broken. But the chart doesn't care about fundamentals in the short term, it cares about structure. And the structure just broke.
The disconnect between what NU's business is doing and what its stock is pricing creates an opportunity, but only at the right level. At $9.12 you are buying a dominant digital bank with 135 million customers and $16 billion in cash at approximately 3-4x forward earnings. That is the entry worth waiting for.
At $12? You are buying into an air pocket with overhead supply from every holder between $12 and $19 waiting to sell.
We are not buyers here. We are watchers.
The POC needs to confirm on volume, or the Golden Ratio needs to be touched on exhaustion. Either would trigger re-entry. Until then the broken wedge structure is in control.
Patience is the position.
The May 15 earnings miss triggered a decisive breakdown candle below the wedge's lower trendline, the foundational support of the stock's entire traded history. The Cup and Handle that had built such a compelling breakout narrative failed at exactly the wrong level, the neckline and rising wedge resistance converging simultaneously at $17-19. Two resistance layers. Zero follow-through.
Where we are now:
Price has found temporary support at the VRVP Point of Control, the most traded price level in NU's history. This is a genuine support. But it sits above an air pocket. Below the POC, volume thins dramatically until the Golden Ratio zone. If the POC fails, price doesn't grind lower, it falls.
The road map:
→ $12.00-$12.50 — VRVP POC. Current support. Decision point.
→ $10.85 — 200 Day EMA + 50% Fibonacci. First meaningful catch if POC fails.
→ $9.00-$9.12 — 61.8% Fibonacci Golden Ratio + VRVP Value Area Low. The highest conviction level on the chart. Two independent frameworks. One price.
→ $6.44 — 78.6% Fibonacci. Bear case.
The probabilities:
🟢 POC holds → bounce to $14-15 — 30%
🟡 200 EMA catches at $10.85 — 25%
🔴 Golden Ratio reached at $9.12 — 30%
🟣 Deep retracement to $6.44 — 15%
Why the fundamentals don't save it yet:
64% revenue growth. 135 million customers. $16 billion in cash. US bank charter incoming. The business is not broken. But the chart doesn't care about fundamentals in the short term, it cares about structure. And the structure just broke.
The disconnect between what NU's business is doing and what its stock is pricing creates an opportunity, but only at the right level. At $9.12 you are buying a dominant digital bank with 135 million customers and $16 billion in cash at approximately 3-4x forward earnings. That is the entry worth waiting for.
At $12? You are buying into an air pocket with overhead supply from every holder between $12 and $19 waiting to sell.
We are not buyers here. We are watchers.
The POC needs to confirm on volume, or the Golden Ratio needs to be touched on exhaustion. Either would trigger re-entry. Until then the broken wedge structure is in control.
Patience is the position.
Vassilis Kairaktidis
Initium Asset Management
Initium Asset Management
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
Vassilis Kairaktidis
Initium Asset Management
Initium Asset Management
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.